Turkey vs. Wales Odds, Picks, Predictions: Euro 2020 Betting Preview (June 16)
Valerio Pennicino – UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images. Pictured: Manager Şenol Güneş of Turkey.
- Turkey is a favorite over Wales in Wednesday action at Euro 2020, with both sides looking to keep their knockout stage hopes alive.
- The Welsh got a result in their opener with a 1-1 draw, while Turkey was trounced by Italy, 3-0.
- Ian Quillen gives his Turkey vs. Wales prediction and preview below.
Turkey vs. Wales Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+165 / -205)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 12 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings.|
Although Turkey lost its first match of the Euro 2020 tournament, Wales might be facing the greater pressure when the sides meet Wednesday in their pivotal Group A match.
The Welsh were semifinalists and tournament darlings at this competition five years ago. However, to come anywhere close to repeating those heroics, they likely need three points against the Turks after a 1-1 draw against Switzerland. The other route involves taking points off Italy on the final day of group play.
Turkey has already experienced a 3-0 defeat at the hands of an exceptional Italian side. Yet, the Turks would remain conceivably alive with a draw here since they face what is likely a Pick’em against Switzerland to close the group.
Turkey Looking for Rebound Effort After Opening Defeat
Turkey’s defense was exceptional in qualifying to get here, conceding only three goals in 10 matches to finish second behind France.
Perhaps that success influenced an overly conservative approach against Italy, though it shouldn’t have, since the back line has been far more penetrable in recent World Cup qualifying.
Either way, a lack of attacking enterprise resulted in a dominant Italian performance and thoroughly deserved three-goal defeat for manager Şenol Güneş’ side. Turkey’s 0.2 expected goals (xG) created was the lowest output over tournament’s first 10 games. The question is whether such a performance sparks a crisis of confidence.
Turkey did bounce back from a 2-0 UEFA Nations League loss to Hungary with a 4-2 World Cup qualifying victory over the Netherlands in its next outing, though there were four months between those matches.
But as Michael Leboff wrote in his Group A preview, this group’s one consistent trait appears to be inconsistency.
We also know this is a better attacking group than the Italy loss suggests, having scored 10 goals through three matches of 2022 World Cup qualifying. Burak Yılmaz has four goals (including two from the penalty spot), while Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Ozan Tufan each have a pair.
Wales Squanders Chance for Big Win Against Switzerland
Wales’ position entering Game 2 is the proverbial half-filled glass.
The Dragons failed to secure three points in what might’ve been their most winnable game on paper. They also managed a point from 90 minutes in which they were a clear second-best to the Swiss.
Either way, though, clearly having to play the aggressor’s role as a match wears on is less than ideal for this group.
The Welsh scored only 10 goals across eight Euro 2020 qualifying matches, easily the fewest of any side that finished in the automatic qualifying places. They’ve followed that with a goal each in two World Cup qualifiers and their Euro 2020 opener against the Swiss.
Wales used a similar formula to reach the 2016 tournament, but it required another offensive gear once it got to France.
Five years ago, part of that gear was the individual brilliance of Gareth Bale, who at the time was one of the planet’s elite attackers.
Now at age 31, Bale is still plenty capable in a squad full of similar talent, but he’s not the same guy who can single-handedly carry a squad. The evidence? His lack of a goal in his last 12 caps.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I’d like Wales’ chances more in a vacuum, but the urgency of the circumstances make this an awkward task.
That’s not to be confused with impossible. This is the same Turkish side that gave back a two-goal lead in its most recent World Cup qualifier against Latvia.
The more likely scenario here is the Welsh being exposed later in the contest for pushing forward if they can’t get a goal early by an opponent with more options in attack. It’s the kind of scenario that could lead to a wider margin of victory than the relative quality between the sides would suggest. In other words, I don’t see a ton of value in the three-way line.
However, if Turkey does win, it’s fairly likely it does so by multiple goals. That makes +420 odds on Turkey at -1.5 goals very appealing. With a 19.2% implied probability, you’re essentially wagering this match ends in a multi-goal Turkish victory more than once out of five times.
Since Euro qualifying began, the Turks have been victorious in seven of their 20 competitive matches (35 percent) by multiple goals. That number climbs to around 43% if you exclude an indifferent-looking UEFA Nations League B campaign.
Two of Turkey’s three wins over fellow Euro qualifiers during that stretch also came by multiple goals.
Pick: Turkey -1.5 (+420)