Everton vs Liverpool Odds, Pick: How to Bet Wednesday’s EPL Showdown
Chris Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Mo Salah.
Everton vs Liverpool Odds, Pick
| Everton Odds | +600 |
| Liverpool Odds | -250 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188 / +150 |
Liverpool look to keep pace in the Premier League title chase when they visit an Everton side that would love nothing more than to ruin their Merseyside' rivals' league aspirations.
Liverpool bounced back from their first home league defeat with back to back victories, including a 3-1 league win at Fulham Sunday on the strength of second-half goals from unlikely scorer Ryan Gravenberch and Diogo Jota.
Earlier that day, Everton earned a 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest decided by a pair of long-distance strikes from Idrissa Gueye and Dwight McNeil that bolstered their hopes of a third successive Premier League survival.
Liverpool earned a 2-0 victory during these sides' previous meeting last October to continue this most lopsided era of this famous fixture. Everton have one win in the last 28 Merseyside Derbies played, a stretch that extends back to 2011.
Here's how I'm betting Everton vs Liverpool in the latest Merseyside Derby.
Everton
There should be an improved feeling around Goodison Park after Sunday's win in a relegation six-pointer took the Toffees five points clear of the drop zone.
It was a second consecutive home match in which the Toffees got some lucky bounces. But if any team has been due those this season, it's probably Everton, a team that has scored only 34 times on 47.7 xG created.
Striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been the worst offender, scoring only five times on 11.1xG. But at least he's getting on the end of chances, with no other player on the Toffees' roster reaching the 7.0 xG total by this point in the season. And he's almost certain to start again Wednesday after Beto was stretchered off in second-half stoppage time of Sunday's win with a scary head injury.
Despite that unusual bad fortune in front of goal, Sean Dyche's squad has rarely been blown out this season, particularly at home.
In their previous games against the current top seven, they comprehensively defeated a then-weary Newcastle side, took a point in meetings with Tottenham and Aston Villa and were within a goal of doing the same against Arsenal back in September. Only the two Manchester clubs completed multiple-goal wins.
Liverpool
Liverpool now have only the league to focus on after their elimination from the UEFA Europa League was made official a week ago. And while they probably can't afford to drop any points in their final five games if they want to remain in title contention, that's doubly true on Wednesday in what statistically is one of their two easiest remaining games.
Following Wednesday, Liverpool will face three consecutive teams in the top half of the table, hosting West Ham and Tottenham before visiting Aston Villa. Then they'll close with a home match against an 11th-place Wolves side that has proven itself capable of earning results against the league's best.
The Reds kept their first clean sheet in 10 games in all competitions in their 1-0 win at Atalanta in leg two of their UEFA Europa League quarterfinal. That wasn't enough to overturn a 3-0 deficit from the first leg, but it may have been a needed confidence boost for a group that has been sabotaged by its defensive mistakes more often than any attacking woes.
Liverpool earned their latest victory while Jurgen Klopp rotated Mo Salah and Darwin Nunez out of his starting XI after they were both part of the team that started against Atalanta. That rest may be especially important given this is the Reds' fourth consecutive midweek with a competitive fixture.
Everton vs Liverpool
Prediction
As goal-challenged as Everton have been, the games against higher-level opponents have often featured more chances at both ends than against the lower-level ones. That perhaps makes sense given the strength's of Dyche's squad lies in their counterattacking ability.
Meanwhile, Liverpool have also been vulnerable to the odd goal on the counter regardless of venue. And they've rarely been able to pour on insurance goals in a fashion their other two title challenges sometimes can.
So with factors that both make the low end of the total goals spectrum and the high end a bit less likely than in a normal match, I think a goal-bands wager on 3 or 4 goals scored at +135 odds and an implied 42.6% probability is the play here. It's a bet that has cashed exactly half the time between Liverpool's away matches at bottom-half opponents and Everton's home games against top-half foes.
Pick: Goal bands, 3-4 goals (+135 via DraftKings)
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