Fulham vs. Leeds United Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Friday, March 19)
Tim Keeton/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds United standouts Raphinha and Jack Harrison embrace after Harrison’s goal during a game this season.
- Fulham welcomes Leeds United to Craven Cottage for Friday's huge Premier League match.
- The Cottagers, who are in the relegation zone, would climb to safety with a victory over the Peacocks.
- Jeremy Pond breaks down the match and gives his top picks below.
Fulham vs. Leeds Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+100 / -124)|
|Day | Time||Friday | 4 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Thursday evening and via DraftKings.|
Life in the Premier League relegation zone is full of fear and uneasiness. When the opportunity presents itself where you have a chance to flee the bottom three, you must take full advantage of the situation.
That’s exactly what Fulham has sitting right in front of it entering Friday’s huge match against the high-flying Peacocks of Leeds United. A victory on home soil would be enough to catapult the Cottagers past floundering Newcastle United and into safety (for the time being) in England’s top flight.
However, the Peacocks hope to ruffle their feathers and spoil the party at Craven Cottage. The club is sitting mid-pack in the table, which is pretty much where it has been all season. Leeds, currently in 12th place, is four points from landing a spot in top half of the standings.
Let’s take a look at these sides and see what might in store.
Every fixture moving forward is basically a must-win situation for the Cottagers. The hosts, who have won three of their last seven league contests, must toss aside any negative feelings that developed following their 3-0 loss to soon-to-be league champion Manchester City last time out.
Fulham’s offensive woes have been well documented, but let me provide you with some glaringly bad statistics that really tell the tale of a club that simply cannot find the back of the net.
The Cottagers have been shut out in seven of their last nine league games. They’ve also been held scoreless in eight of their last 14 matches across all competitions. Add in the fact Fulham’s leading scorer — Bobby Wood — has just five goals in his account, and he will reportedly miss this game.
Statistically, Fulham has some subpar numbers when it comes to the advanced metrics, but they’re better than you’d expect from a team residing in 18th place. The Cottagers sit on 31.5 expected goals and 38.5 xGA, resulting in a disappointing -7.0 xGDiff and flat -0.24 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Manager Marcelo Bielsa and the Peacocks have put together a decent season in their return to first-division soccer in England. Now, the goal is to finish inside the top 10 and potentially work their way into a Europa League berth.
Patrick Bamford leads the line for Leeds, collecting a team-best 13 goals that have him on the outskirts of the Golden Boot race. Bamford picked up a knock in the scoreless draw against powerful Chelsea last Saturday, but all things point to the Peacocks’ talisman returning at Craven Cottage.
When comparing numbers with Fulham, Leeds is better in all but one of the common major categories. The Peacocks boast a sizzling 41.9 xG and brutal 46.5 xGA, generating a mediocre -4.6 xGDiff and -0.16 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Picks
As much as I would love to see Fulham pull ahead of Newcastle in the battle for safety, I simply cannot get behind a club that has failed to win 10 of its last 11 league matches at Craven Cottage.
That said, I am backing Leeds via a Draw No Bet wager at fair +100 odds as my top play. The Peacocks are in much better shape overall, plus they’re healthier at the moment as well. I fully expect Bamford, Jack Harrison and the supporting cast to do enough to earn the road victory.
I will also sprinkle a little on the total staying under the alternative number of 2.75 goals as well. Yes, these are pretty high odds of -159 at DraftKings, but I feel this is the safest avenue to go. I don’t anticipate this number dropping, so I’d grab it now if you’re interesting in this wager.
Picks: Leeds — Draw No Bet (+100) | Total Under 2.75 Goals (-159)
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