Fulham vs. Bournemouth Betting Preview: Cherries to Hold Hosts Low in Premier League Fixture

Fulham vs. Bournemouth Odds

In a match between two newly-promoted clubs, Bournemouth travels to London to take on Fulham at Craven Cottage on Saturday.

These teams are the biggest surprises of the early season, with both entering the match in the top half of the Premier League table.

The hosts are in ninth on 11 points, while the Cherries are one spot above them in eighth with 12 points.

If you were to ask both fanbases, even the most loyal of supporters of each club wouldn’t expect either to finish in their current positions, but regardless of where they are now, these sorts of fixtures are always very important in the fight to avoid relegation.

Fulham Enters In Poor Recent Form

Even with the solid start to the campaign, Fulham comes into this weekend after two of the worst performances of their season against Newcastle United and West Ham United.

The Cottagers were outscored 7-2 in the two losses and posted a -5.9 xGDiff in the process, according to fbref.com. However, there were some unique situations in those games.

In the game against the Magpies, midfielder Nathaniel Chalobah was sent off inside the first 10 minutes of a match where star striker Aleksandar Mitrović was subbed off with an injury and key enforcer João Palhinha missed out due to suspension.

Meanwhile, the Hammers’ triumph came from a penalty and a pair of goals that should have been called off due to handball in the process of the goal. Mitrović, who is a game-time decision to feature in this match, also missed this fixture as well.

Bournemouth Turning Things Around

Things were looking dark for Bournemouth until they switched managers to Gary O’Neil, who has led the club on a five-match unbeaten run since he took over.

The Cherries have ridden their luck under O’Neil, holding a -3.2 xGDiff and losing the xG battle in all five of his games.

Fortunately for O’Neil, all that matters is getting results, and he has been able to do so as the caretaker manager.

One key reason for the improvement has been the play of Philip Billing, who has found the back of the net in three of the last four fixtures.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

When two teams that figure to end up at the bottom of the table play each other, you typically see a very cagey affair as neither wants to end up as the loser, which is what I see in this game here.

So, my best bet is for the total to fall under 2.5 goals at -110 odds via FanDuel.

Yes, I understand that Fulham is towards the bottom of the league in multiple defensive categories, but you have to keep in mind how the team’s numbers may be inflated by the two matches I pointed out above. This is also the same side that has drastically over performed in front of goal, scoring 14 goals on 9.6 expected.

I also don’t think Bournemouth is the type of team that can take advantage of the Cottagers’ recent defensive struggles. The Cherries are last in the EPL in xG per 90 minutes (0.54), shots on target per game (2.22) and big scoring chances created (five).

O’Neil’s side is also due some lower-scoring matches. Through the first nine fixtures, Bournemouth’s games have had 28 goals on 19.5 xG, which is not something that is sustainable.

It hasn’t been the best of seasons betting on unders in the EPL, but I think this is a good spot to take one.

The Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-110)