Global Soccer Updated Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets: Our Staff’s 3 Favorite Underdogs, Featuring Mainz & Sporting Kansas City
Nick Tre. Smith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Sporting Kansas City standout Johnny Russell.
Things continued to be quite profitable for our Action Network soccer handicappers and everyone following their Global Underdogs picks.
Yes, it was another banner week, with two analysts drilling their moneyline longshots on last weekend’s European soccer card. They got things started when Jeremy Pond hit his third consecutive underdog in this feature, thanks to Hull City and its wild, 3-2 victory over Coventry City in Championship action.
Colombia international Óscar Estupiñán caught fire for the Tigers, recording a hat trick, to help cash the +210 ML winner. Pond hit on League Two side Walsall (+275) and Championship outfit Sunderland (+255) before connecting on his own handicapping hat trick.
— Hull City (@HullCity) August 27, 2022
Fellow analyst Brett Pund closed things out in grand fashion when Premier League side West Ham United (+220) secured a 1-0 shutout win against host Aston Villa.
This week, Pond has sauntered off on holiday, but Pund, Nick Hennion and Ian Quillen are back in the mix with their spicy picks.
If you’re a new or old friend, our experts look for live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend around the globe. Whether it’s a match in Premier League, La Liga, Championship or maybe something from Major League Soccer, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver a winner.
That said, let’s take a look at their top picks on another stacked slate.
Our 3 Favorite ML Underdogs
|GAME||PICK | ODDS||DAY | TIME|
|Newcastle vs. Crystal Palace||Crystal Palace ML (+275)||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|Gladbach vs. Mainz||Mainz ML (+220)||Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET|
|LA Galaxy vs. Sporting KC||Sporting KC ML (+380)||Sunday | 8 p.m. ET|
Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.
Brett Pund: Crystal Palace ML (+275) vs. Newcastle
- Odds available at BetMGM
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
St. James’ Park can be a difficult place for opposing teams to come away with three points, but Crystal Palace is undervalued in this spot when Newcastle United could be missing multiple key players.
In the midweek loss to Liverpool, the Magpies were without Callum Wilson, Allan Saint-Maximin and Bruno Guimarães.
The trio combined to average 0.83 expected goals per 90 minutes last season, according to fbref.com, while Newcastle held a 1.06 xG mark as a club. Those players will be a huge loss to any attacking threat the hosts might have, especially against a Palace defense that finished fifth in xGA per game (1.08) last season in the English top flight.
That said, this is a great price to back the tough Eagles who have an in-form striker in Wilfried Zaha leading the line.
Nick Hennion: Mainz ML (+220) vs. Gladbach
- Odds available at FanDuel
- Day | Time: Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
Bettors need to turn a blind eye to Mainz’s road record here in order to back it, but I still believe the visitor has a shot to pul the upset.
To date this season, Mainz has a -1 goal differential through its first four fixtures. However, it simultaneously has a +7 differential on big scoring chances and could see a sizeable amount of positive offensive regression. The club has scored four goals on 5.64 expected goals and 10 big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.
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On the flip side, I believe this is a great sell-high spot on Borussia Mönchengladbach. Although it is unbeaten on the season, the Foals have +1 differential on big scoring chances against a +3 goal differential in reality, suggesting negative regression could arrive soon.
Additionally, Mainz earned results in both meetings between these clubs last season and dominated in the most recent confrontation at Borussia Park. In that match, Mainz won the xG battle by a 2.28-1.73 margin and held a 4-2 edge in big scoring chances despite the match finishing in a 1-1 stalemate.
Ian Quillen: Sporting KC ML (+380) vs. LA Galaxy
- Odds available at Caesars
- Day | Time: Sunday | 8 p.m. ET
On first glance, Sporting Kansas City and the Los Angeles Galaxy are in some of their better form of the season. Look closer and Sporting KC is a genuinely improved side, while the Los Angeles is a fortunate one.
Since summer signings William Agada and Erik Thommy have both joined manager Peter Vermes’ Starting XI, Sporting KC has earned nine of 15 points on offer, won the xG battle in all five of their games and played to an elite 3.8 xGDiff during that stretch.
The Galaxy are unbeaten in four games, while losing on xG in three of those outings only to benefit from some individual brilliance. In their 2-2 draw in Toronto FC during the midweek slate, a free kick goal from Douglas Costa and a late equalizer by Riqui Puig from distance combined to have only a 0.09 xG value north of the border.
Los Angeles also struggles with teams that play vertically, which is what Sporting KC has become since its summer additions. And the underdogs are also playing on a full week’s rest, while the Galaxy are on short rest following their East Coast trip.
The visitor side’s playoff chances are extremely slim because Thomy and Agada came to the rescue too late. However, it’s much improved and bought-in club, so this is a good spot to bet it +380 moneyline odds and an implied 20.8% probability.