La Liga Odds, Picks and Predictions: Best Bets for Real Madrid vs. Eibar

Credit:

Mateo Villalba/Quality Sport Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Sergio Ramos

  • Real Madrid was having a nice season prior to the COVID-19 pandemic shutdown but stumbled right before the break.
  • They'll need an outright victory today against Eibar to restart their pursuit of a title.
  • Where's the betting value today? Is Real Madrid worth a bet or perhaps is there more value on the over/under? We break it all down below.

Real Madrid at Eibar Odds and Picks

Real Madrid odds -400
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Eibar odds +950
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Draw odds +525
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Over/Under 3 (-129/+107)
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Time Sunday, 1:30 p.m. ET
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Real Madrid will re-start their title pursuit with a showdown with bottom-feeder Eibar on Sunday.

Madrid was two points behind Barcelona when the world came to a halt and anything less than three points against a team like Eibar would basically end Los Blancos’ title hopes.

Eibar sit at the other end of the La Liga table and will be scrapping for survival for the rest of the season. Los Armeros were just two points above the drop zone at the break.


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Real Madrid

Real Madrid had a really nice season going before stumbling in their last few matches before the pandemic paused the season.

Los Blancos looked to have a stranglehold on the La Liga crown after defeating Barcelona in El Clasico. Things came undone for Zinedine Zidane’s side soon thereafter, though, as Real Madrid lost to Levante and Real Betis.

Those losses have turned Madrid’s season upside down and now Barcelona are odds-on favorites to win La Liga.

This version of Real Madrid is a different team than we are used to seeing. Los Blancos are a committed defensive team in 2019-20 and boast the second-best expected goals against per game in La Liga (and their best mark in five years) at 0.93.

Despite their terrific numbers in front of their own goal, Madrid hasn’t really sacrificed offense for defense as they lead La Liga with 1.97 expected goals per game.

Real Madrid should have no problem dominating this game on both sides of the pitch.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Eibar

Its been a difficult season for Los Armeros and they find themselves in the thick of a relegation battle.

Real Madrid’s terrific defense shouldn’t have too much of an issue dispatching Eibar, who rank near the bottom of La Liga with 1.05 expected goals for per match and just 0.66 xGF per match when they are on the road.

Eibar’s toothless offense, combined with a porous defense which allows 1.49 expected goals per match is a terrible combination against one of the world’s best teams. Anything could happen in 90 minutes and the three-month hiatus certainly levels the playing field a bit, but it’s still difficult to see how Eibar are going get a result from this game.

Analysis

One interesting stat from this game is that both Real Madrid and Eibar rank among the best six teams in La Liga at preventing big chances (35% or greater at going in) this season (per Infogol). Additionally, only 48% of Real Madrid matches this season have gone over 2.5 goals, which is surprising considering their attacking talent.

Based on my model, my projected odds are very close to the current odds on DraftKings.

  • Real Madrid projected odds: -378 (78.80% win probability)
  • Real Madrid projected xG: 2.36
  • Eibar projected odds: +1670 (5.65%)
  • Eibar projected xG: 0.60
  • Draw projected odds: +543 (15.55%)

I project this game for a total of 2.96 expected goals, so I see some value on the Under 2.5 goals at +163 (36.1% implied probability).

Pick: Under 2.5 (+163)

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