Leicester City vs. Crystal Palace Betting Preview: Value’s Clearly on This Side

Leicester vs. Crystal Palace Odds

Leicester City look to get out of last place in the Premier League table when they host Crystal Palace at King Power Stadium.

It's dark times for Leicester, who have one win and eight losses from their first nine matches in the Premier League. On top of that, the Leicester board cannot afford to pay two managers at once, which means they are stuck with Brenden Rodgers. The Foxes desperately need points if they want to get out of the relegation fight.

Crystal Palace does not look like the team that finished with a positive expected goal differential last season. The Eagles have been leaking goals defensively but did get a crucial win over Leeds in their match. Patrick Vieira's side has played a difficult schedule to this point in the season and has some favorable fixtures coming up, including Saturday at Leicester.

Leicester City

The Foxes' defensive issues have been well-highlighted, and they have been a bit unfortunate to concede 23 goals off of 13.1 expected, with a lot of that having to do with Danny Ward being awful and having a -5.8 post-shot xG +/-.

But it also has to do with the fact they are conceding way too many high-quality chances. Leicester has conceded 15 big scoring chances in nine matches, and they have conceded a big scoring chance in every single match they’ve played. Then you look at the injury list, and Wilfred Ndidi and Mendy are both out, meaning it’s really only Soumare who plays the defensive midfielder role to stop Palace from countering. 

Then you look at the offense for Leicester, and they are averaging only 0.97 npxG per match, have created only four big scoring chances on the season, and are pretty much relying on James Maddison to score crazy goals because he’s scored five off of 1.2 xG.

Stylistically this is not a good matchup because the teams that Leicester play well against are teams that will come up and press them high and leave space in behind for Tielemens and Maddison to play balls through or progress the ball up the field. Leicester is third in the Premier League in offensive PPDA.

Crystal Palace is not a team that is going to press them high, and for the third week in a row, Leicester is going to have to try to break down a low block. 

Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace’s numbers this season are really bad. They are dead last in box entries allowed per 90 minutes, 18th in npxG per 90 minutes allowed, dead last in xThreat allowed, and 17th in big scoring chances allowed.

However, a lot of that has to do with the fact that they’ve already had to play Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea and Newcastle. Against Aston Villa, Leeds and Brentford, they did allow only 3.5 xG, and this is still the same defense that allowed 0.94 npxG a season ago with the same backline.

So, despite the bad numbers this season, I am relying on Crystal Palace to still be at least somewhere close to the defense we saw last season.

Plus, it helps when you are playing a Leicester offense that has really struggled to break down low blocks.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

For two straight weeks, Leicester has been asked to break down a low block from Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth. Even though they scored a combined five goals, they were able to create only 2.3 xG off of 25 shots. Additionally, Leicester has the highest average shot distance in the Premier League.

So, with how bad their defense has been and how much of a struggle it's been offensively, I love Crystal Palace in this matchup.

I have Leicester projected at only +166, so I love the value on Crystal Palace Draw no Bet at +133 (BetRivers).

The Pick: Crystal Palace Draw no Bet (+133)