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Los Angeles FC vs. New York Red Bulls Betting Odds, Preview, Picks: Does Gareth Bale News Give Hosts Bigger Edge? (June 26)

Los Angeles FC vs. New York Red Bulls Betting Odds, Preview, Picks: Does Gareth Bale News Give Hosts Bigger Edge? (June 26) article feature image
Credit:

James Williamson – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Gareth Bale.

LAFC vs. RBNY Odds

LAFC Odds -115
RBNY Odds +280
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (-145 / +100)
Day | Time Sunday | 3 p.m. ET
How To Watch ABC | fuboTV
Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

The cavalry appears to be coming in the form of European stars Gareth Bale and Giorgio Chiellini. However, Los Angeles Football Club will first try to keep its lead in the Supporters’ Shield race when it hosts the New York Red Bulls in Sunday’s Major League Soccer action.

Even before news broke Saturday that LAFC is expected to sign Bale — the former Real Madrid and Tottenham star — the Black and Gold were one of MLS’ glitziest clubs.

Longtime Mexican international star Carlos Vela is having a bounce-back season at age 33 with a team-leading six goals. Brian Rodriguez is a consistent part of the prestigious Uruguay national team setup.

The Red Bulls are built in a decidedly lower profile, but trail LAFC by only four points. And their strength-in-numbers, high-pressure approach has earned an MLS-best 16 points away from home.

This is only these clubs’ third all-time meeting — and the first since Aug. 11 of 2019 — which was a 4-2 LAFC win.

Los Angeles Football Club

For all the focus on Vela, fellow attacker Cristian Arango has also produced of late. All four of his goals have come since April 9, including once in each of LAFC’s last two matches.

That reflects more balance overall under manager Steve Cherundolo, with seven players scoring multiple goals this campaign.

Fullback Ryan Hollingshead has four in his first year with LAFC, two shy of his career high set with Dallas in 2019.

Team notes

  • Bale and Chiellini could debut when the club faces the Los Angeles Galaxy on July 8, which comes a day after MLS’ secondary transfer window opens.
  • Vela has been a halftime substitute in his last two appearances, which were a 2-0 win in Columbus on May 21 and a 1-1 draw at Seattle last Saturday.

By The Numbers

  • 10 — Total number of LAFC’s 30 goals scored by substitutes this campaign.
  • +0.99 — LAFC’s expected goals difference per 90 minutes in home games this season, the second-best mark in the league.
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New York Red Bulls

The Red Bulls defeated New York City FC, 3-0, at home in the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinal round on Wednesday night.

That could make this challenge tougher. And the Red Bulls have already seen their away form regress recently, taking only one point from their last three away matches.

Winger Lewis Morgan keeps scoring, with nine goals across all competitions and seven in MLS play. Luquinhas has added five in his first MLS campaign. Both men scored in last weekend’s 2-0 win over Toronto FC.

Team notes

  • Midfielder Dru Yearwood (hamstring) is questionable. He has appeared in all but one of RBNY’s 16 games (10 starts).
  • MIdfielder/forward Caden Clark is away with the US U-20 national team.

Key Statistics

  • +1.7 — The Red Bulls’ overall xGDiff in eight away games, the top mark in the Eastern Conference.
  • -4.2 — RBNY’s xGDiff in its last three away matches (two losses and a draw).
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Betting Analysis & Pick

The recent dip in the Red Bulls’ away form is pretty easily explained by a strengthening schedule.

Of their five away wins, only two have come against teams who currently hold playoff places. That includes an early victory over New England while the Revolution were distracted by the CONCACAF Champions League at the time.

So, I like LAFC to win outright, but -115 moneyline odds feel a little steep. To feel more comfortable playing them, I’m tying in the total exceeding 1.5 goals via a Single Game Parlay as my top pick.

It’s not the Red Bulls’ style to close up shop away from home, and with LAFC’s strength in transition, that should mean chances on both ends. The Black and Gold haven’t won a 1-0 match this year.

At +120 odds and an implied 45.5% probability, you’re backing a trend that his hit in five of LAFC’s eight home games and both of the Red Bulls’ away defeats.

The Pick: Single Game Parlay — LAFC ML & Total Over 1.5 Goals (+120)

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