Man City vs Burnley Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Match Preview
Catherine Ivill/Getty. Pictured: Bernardo Silva.
Man City vs Burnley Odds
| Man City Odds | -1000 |
| Burnley Odds | +1600 |
| Draw | +1100 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -300 / +240 |
Kevin De Bruyne and his Manchester City will be hosting the struggling Burnley side at the Etihad this Wednesday in a mid-week Premier League matchup. A win for Manchester City will take them just two points behind league leaders, Liverpool. A win for Burnley would have them just two points from safety, having played more than half the season.
Manchester City have not played their best football this season, yet they are still second in the Premier League, just five points behind Liverpool. The return of Kevin De Bruyne in recent weeks has seen a surge in performance for Pep's men, winning each of their last five matches in all competitions, conceding just three goals over that span.
Burnley have not fared well as of late, winning just one of their last seven matches in the league. They currently sit 19th, only ahead of Sheffield United. Kompany will be desperate for any result in this one, as every point is crucial in the fight for survival.
Read on for our Man City vs Burnley prediction.
Man City
When Kevin De Bruyne is playing, Manchester City are one of, if not the best team in the world. This was exemplified when De Bruyne came off the bench against Newcastle and single handedly won them that match. He grabbed a goal and an assist in just over 20 minutes of game time.
Not only does he provide more end product than most other players in the world, but he helps City keep possession like no other team in the world. With the City midfield of De Bruyne, Foden and Alvarez, this is one of the most creative sides the Premier League has seen in a long time. When they do end up losing possession, Rodri, Ruben Dias and Nathan Ake are there to win the ball back. This is why their passes per sequence is as high as 5.55 right now, the highest in the league.
The main difference with this Manchester City team compared to the rest of the league, bar Liverpool, is that they have so much depth on the bench. Erling Haaland has been out for almost a month with injury and they have actually performed better than when he was healthy. This could also be attributed to the rise of youth talent in this side, such as Rico Lewis, Oscar Bobb and Micah Hamilton. Those young talents already have six goal contributions between the three of them across all competitions this season. Not to mention they still have Jack Grealish, Jeremy Doku, Bernardo Silva and Matheus Nunes on the bench.
It will be interesting to see how Guardiola lines his side up with nearly everyone healthy. I anticipate he will rest a few players as they play less than a week later away at Brentford. However, on their day, a half-strength Manchester City are still miles better than a full-strength Burnley side.
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Burnley
Burnley have surprisingly picked up twice the amount of points away from home as they have at Turf Moor this year. They have two wins and two draws in their 10 matches away from home, with a respectable -7 goal difference. This is better than relegation form, it is their home form that has let them down this year. This is because when they are away from home, Kompany realizes that he has to play a bit more conservative than his preferred play style.
As of late, Kompany has somewhat shifted away from their pressing, possession based gameplay. There are still signs of this type of play during their matches, such as playing out from the back which has come back to haunt them numerous times over the course of this season. Over their last nine matches, they have conceded just 1.48 expected goals against per match. This is comparable with Chelsea's defensive record this season, Burnley's issue is going forward.
In those same nine matches, Burnley have tallied just 0.98 expected goals per match. This has been the case all season for the Clarets, as they have the lowest xG number in the entire league. If you cannot score goals, it is going to be hard to win. There is no denying that Burnley deserve to be in the bottom three as of right now, but they have shown signs of improvement on the defensive side of things, which is vital when fighting relegation in this league. Having said that, they are going up against a Manchester City side that is flying at the minute.
Man City vs Burnley
Prediction
Pep Guardiola's Manchester City are finally playing like they were during their treble winning campaign last season. The return of Kevin De Bruyne has added that class and morale boost that they were missing earlier in the season. This has resulted in some impressive wins, and I expect more of the same against this Burnley side.
Burnley have been playing better defensively over the past few months, however their offensive woes are still a massive issue. They cannot score, and they struggle to even create big chances in their matches. I expect little to no pressure on City in this one.
While I have City handedly winning this match, I do not see any value on -2.5 as that is just astronomical for a team that may take it a bit easier on a weaker opponent. Instead, I will be taking Manchester City -1 in the first half. I expect City to come out flying in this one and then go through the motions in the second half.
Pick: Manchester City -1 First Half (-120 or better)
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