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Manchester United vs Bournemouth Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Manchester United vs. Bournemouth Odds

Tuesday, Jan. 3
3 p.m. ET
Peacock
Manchester United Odds -410
Bournemouth Odds +1100
Draw +500
Over/Under 2.5 (-184 / +150)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (+112 / -142)
Odds via BetRivers. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Manchester United look to keep their winning streak alive when they host Bournemouth at Old Trafford.

United kept their victorious ways going over the weekend, notching a 1-0 win on the road at Wolves. Erik Ten Hag has his team playing at a very high level right now through an easy part in their schedule. This is another opportunity for them to gain ground on Tottenham and get into the top four.

Bournemouth are starting to regress, as they’ve lost back to back matches out of the World Cup break. The Cherries are sitting in 15th place, but they are still the overwhelming favorite to be relegated. So, they need all the points they can get in their quest to stay up.

Manchester United Playing an Effective Conservative Style

Erik Ten Hag has his team playing a very deep low block, as Manchester United have one of the lowest average defensive lines in the Premier League.

However, since their 6-3 loss to Manchester City on Oct. 2, the Red Devils have only allowed 7.6 xG in their last nine Premier League matches.

One of the things Manchester United have improved on the most is defending inside their own penalty area.

They are in the bottom half of the Premier League in passes allowed and touches allowed in the penalty area but are top-five in big scoring chances allowed. United are also top five in xG allowed per set piece, which is huge against a side who create most of their chances off of set pieces.

Now that Cristiano Ronaldo has moved on, Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial are up top for United.

However, Rashford scored against Wolves, but he has only been a 0.34 xG-per-90-minute striker this season, and Martial hasn’t played four full 90s yet. So, to say Manchester United are going to become this amazing offensive team after putting up over w xG against Nottingham Forest and Wolves is a bit of a stretch. 

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Bournemouth Struggling For Fire Power

I’m not really sure how Bournemouth are going to create enough chances to be competitive in this match.

The only way Bournemouth creates chances is via set pieces. The Cherries have created just 8.7 expected goals from open play, but have scored 13 of them, and we are now seeing regression hit them in a big way in their last two matches.

Gary O’Neill has his side set up in a low block and counter style. The Cherries are getting the field tilted on them at 33.24% and are playing the fifth-lowest average defensive line. They are also top five in direct speed along with bottom five in 10-plus pass sequences, per theanalyst.com. So, they will likely concede a lot of possession to Manchester United and look to counter.

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Manchester United vs. Bournemouth Pick

This is not a good matchup for Bournemouth. The Cherries are a very direct counterattack team that has been relying on an unsustainable finishing rate to keep them out of the relegation zone. Now that the Red Devils have inserted Casemiro into their lineup, they seem to have solved their defensive transition problems that had plagued them for a long time.

On the flip side, I’m not ready to say Manchester United have a top five offense after two good showings against Nottingham Forest and Wolves. With Bournemouth playing an incredibly deep defensive line, it’s going to be hard for United to create a lot of high quality chances.

I have the total for this game projected at 2.63, so I like the value on the under 3.

Pick: Under 3 (-104) 

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