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Manchester United vs. Chelsea Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Here’s How to Back the Blues

Manchester United vs. Chelsea Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Here’s How to Back the Blues article feature image
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Chris Lee – Chelsea FC/Chelsea FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea manager Thomas Tuchel (right) and midfielder Jorginho.

  • Manchester United welcomes Chelsea to Old Trafford for Thursday's Premier League clash.
  • The Red Devils are facing a must-win situation if they have any shot at making the top four in the table.
  • Ian Quillen breaks down the match below and examine why he's backing a scoring prop tied to Chelsea.

Man United vs. Chelsea Odds

Man United Odds +225
Chelsea Odds +115
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-130 / +100) 
Day | Time Thursday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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Odds updated via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Chelsea can extinguish any lingering Premier League top-four hopes for Manchester United on Thursday when it visits Old Trafford for a crucial match.

The Red Devils, who are already unlikely to earn one of four UEFA Champions berths, enter the midweek slate six points back of fourth-place Arsenal. And United has lost three of its last four contests, including a 3-1 defeat at Emirates Stadium this past Saturday in league action.

Chelsea is all but guaranteed to finish third and can put itself mathematically out of United’s reach with one more point. The Blues also lost to the Gunners two matches ago before responding with a well-earned, 1-0 home against West Ham United.

These sides drew 1-1 in late November at Stamford Bridge  in their prior clash.

Motivation Becomes Concern at Man United

The key question surrounding the hosts right now is their level of interest for the remainder of the season.

Incoming manager Erik ten Hag has yet to take the reins at United. The UEFA Champions League is also a distant memory after its elimination to Atlético Madrid in mid-March action.

Even caretaker boss Ralph Ragnick said continued talk of a top-four finish “doesn’t make sense” this week after the Arsenal defeat.

And he’s right. After Chelsea, United might have winnable games remaining in Brentford, Brighton & Hove Albion and Crystal Palace. However, even should they earn all of their last 12 points possible, the Red Devils will likely need Arsenal to earn five or fewer points from its last five games.

And it’s a short-handed United side that hosts Chelsea, with Harry Maguire, Paul Pogba, Jadon Sancho, Luke Shaw, Edinson Cavani and Fred all missing out. Defender Aaron Wan-Bissaka is also doubtful.

Rangnick has hit his fair share of bumps in his role, but he has shored up United’s home form. The Red Devils have lost only once in the league at Old Trafford since his arrival while taking 24 of 33 possible points.

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Chelsea Has Plenty at Stake Down Stretch

Manager Thomas Tuchel’s men are also dealing with UCL disappointment at the hands of Spanish opposition, losing to Real Madrid in the quarterfinals.

However, the Blues have more awaiting them at the business end of the campaign. They followed their UCL exit with an FA Cup semifinal victory over Crystal Place to set up a glamorous final against Liverpool.

And there is still some work left to assure Arsenal and another team — Tottemham Hotspur or less likely United — don’t push them out of the top four.

The return of supporters to stadiums in the 2021-2022 campaign brought back a statistical home-field advantage for most EPL clubs, but Chelsea has been the EPL road warrior, earning 36 points away against only 29 at home.

Tuchel’s men have won eight in a row away across all competitions, scoring multiple goals in the last seven. Their last away trip was a 3-1 win over Real Madrid in 90 minutes that finished 3-2 after 120 minutes, with aggregate goals requiring extra time.

Defenders Antonio Rudiger and Reece James could both return from absences. Attacker Ross Barkley is a new absence with illness.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

It would be unfair to say United have quit on Rangnick. Yet, there does appear to be an understandable dip in intensity with the major carrots of the season becoming out of reach.

That probably shows up more on the defensive side of the ball, where the Red Devils have failed to keep a clean sheet in eight matches overall.

Defense had already been an issue against elite opponents before that disappointment as well. Teams currently above United in the league table have scored multiple goals in seven of nine previous league meetings, as well as all four previous meetings at Old Trafford.

Meanwhile, Chelsea has scored multiple goals in seven consecutive away games and in all four prior away matches against teams currently in the top six.

It definitely seems the Blues’ attack is buoyed by the transition opportunities that come on the road against more aggressive opposition.

So, I love playing the Chelsea team total to clear 1.5 goals at +105 odds and an implied 48.8% probability. That doesn’t necessarily mean a Blues win, though. United has shown the ability to outscore opponents at times.

Pick: Chelsea — Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+105)

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