Inter Milan vs. Atalanta Serie A Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Monday, March 8)
Nicolò Campo/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Romelu Lukaku.
- Inter Milan look to continue a stellar run of form in a showdown with Atalanta on Monday.
- Antonio Conte's side are three points clear at the top of Serie A, while Atalanta is also hot, scoring goals left and right in 2021.
- Matt Trebby breaks down how he's backing the first-half and game totals.
Inter vs. Atalanta Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-150 / +110)|
|Day | Time||Monday | 2:45 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds as of Sunday afternoon via BetMGM.|
Serie A leader Inter Milan faces a massive test Monday in the form of free-flowing Atalanta.
Inter is three points clear of city rival AC Milan after the Rossoneri beat Hellas Verona on Sunday. Atalanta enter this matchup 10 points behind Inter, and any hope of the Scudetto would come to an end if it’s unable to win at the San Siro.
Antonio Conte’s Inter is out of European football, with a sole focus of winning the title in the Italian top flight. Inter has been unstoppable over the past six matches, and it will take a big effort from Atalanta to slow the club down.
Let’s dig in:
Inter has won six consecutive matches by a combined 17-2 scoreline. The expected-goals scoreline is 15.84-3.14 xG, according to Understat, which is a good indication that it has been every bit as good as its results indicate.
Inter have the most goals (62) in Serie A entering this game, two ahead of Atalanta. The Nerrazzuri have just 50.86 non-penalty expected goals (NPxG), which for a lesser side would indicate a bit of fortune in front of goal.
That’s not the case for Inter, though. Instead, it’s a sign of its quality up front. Inter doesn’t need the most clearcut chances to find the back of the net, because Romelu Lukaku (18 goals, eight assists) and Lautaro Martinez (13G/5A) are the best strike partnership in Europe. It’s rare for a team to play with two strikers nowadays, but Conte’s group does it flawlessly.
Even reserve striker Alexis Sanchez has five goals and five assists in 18 appearances, averaging a combined 1.11 expected goals and assists per 90 minutes. Sanchez scored twice Thursday in a 2-1 win over Parma.
Defensively, the trio of Alessandro Bastoni, Stefan de Vrij and Milan Skriniar have been incredible this calendar year. In the 2020 portion of this season, Inter ranked seventh in the league with 17.57 NPxG in 14 matches.
In 2021, though, its defense has been nothing short of magnificent. Inter has allowed eight goals in 11 games, resulting in a league-low 6.29 NPxGA.
However, Inter hasn’t faced an attack like Atalanta’s this year yet, though.
The entertainers of Serie A, Atalanta leads the league in 2021 with 32 goals in 12 games for a 27.07 NPxG. There was a thought the side from Bergamo would slow down after selling captain Alejandro Gomez in January due to a falling out with manager Gian Piero Gasperini, but that hasn’t been the case.
No team has earned more points this calendar year(27 through 12 games), but taking just 22 from its first 13 games made a run for the league title extremely difficult.
Just like Inter, Atalanta enters this game on a fine run of form. The club has won four consecutive games against Cagliari, Napoli, Sampdoria and Crotone by a combined 12-3 scoreline.
In 2021, three Atalanta players have at least six goals in 12 games — Luis Muriel has eight, while striker Duvan Zapata and wingback Robin Gosens each have six goals.
Defensively, Atalanta has conceded 12 goals in 12 games this calendar year. It’s a respectable total, but this matchup will be its biggest test.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Our own BJ Cunningham projected this game at a combined 2.97 xG, so there’s great value on over 2.5 goals at -150 over at BetMGM.
While both defenses are playing well, Atalanta knows it has to win if it’s to have any hope of making a charge for the league crown. When Atalanta goes forward and opens the game up, it’s beautiful chaos. Inter is incredible on the counter attack, which is good news for the host in this match.
Assuming Atalanta comes out firing, I also like over 1.5 goals in the first half at a juicy +140 odds.
Life’s too short to back the under, especially in Serie A.
Picks: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-150) | 1H Total Over 1.5 Goals (+140)