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Newcastle United vs. Manchester City Betting Preview: Updated Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions & Expert Tips

Newcastle United vs. Manchester City Betting Preview: Updated Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions & Expert Tips article feature image
Credit:

Lynne Cameron – Manchester City/Manchester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City standout João Cancelo.

Newcastle vs. Man City Odds

Newcastle Odds +700
Man City Odds -275
Draw +400
Over/Under 2.5 (-165 / +115)
Day | Time Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Sunday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Manchester City looks to continue its early season dominance when it journeys to northeast England to face Newcastle United in Sunday’s Premier League clash.

The Magpies have been a tale of two teams through their first two matches. They completely dominated Nottingham Forest in their opener and then were pathetic offensively at Brighton & Hove Albion last time out. With rich new owners, the expectations for Newcastle have been raised from fighting for relegation to now competing for a top-six finish.

Putting together back-to-back clean sheets, plus six combined goals scored against West Ham United and Bournemouth, are exactly what manager Pep Guardiola would have hoped for in the first two matches. This will be the Cityzens’ toughest test to date, but like always are deserving big favorites even on the road.

Newcastle United

After Jan. 15, only Manchester City, Liverpool and Tottenham picked up more or equaled the number points for Newcastle in the English top flight. The Magpies’ 38 points were a little deceiving because their expected points were only 27.33, per understat.com. They also had a -2.82 NPxGDiff in that time frame, so this team is due for some negative regression.

The problem here is Newcastle has shown it can be dominant and control possession against lower-tier sides, but when it has to step up and play the big boys, the club struggles.

After the January transfer window last season, Newcastle faced five “Big Six” teams. In only one of those matches did the Magpies create more than one xG and included in those five contests was a fixture against Manchester City where they got pasted in a 5-0 blowout.

By The Numbers

  • 1.18 — Newcastle’s non-penalty expected goals per match after the January transfer window, which was 14th in the Premier League.
  • 8.18 — The Magpies’ Offensive PPDA after the January transfer window, which was third to last in league play.
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Manchester City

The Cityzens have kept consecutive clean sheets, only allowing a total of 0.50 xG, nine shots and 17 touches in its penalty area. Those are dominant numbers that are a continuation from last season when they conceded 0.64 xG per outing and ranked No. 1 in every EPL defensive metric. 

Man City’s possession-dominant style that saw it hold on average 68.5% of the ball in games. Its style suffocates opponents because not only does it not allow foes to have the ball, it plays a slow, pragmatic build-up style.

Per The Analyst, the Cityzens had a sequence time of 5.32, a direct speed of 1.03, and 282 build-up attacks, which were far and away tops in the Premier League in those categories.

By The Numbers

  • 916 — Number of 10+ pass sequences from Manchester City last season, which was 182 more than any other club.
  • 6 — The number of times non-Big Six clubs created north of 1.00 xG against Guardiola’s stellar defense.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

Newcastle was really poor offensively against Brighton last weekend, creating only 0.20 xG, registering four shots and having 17 touches in the penalty area.

So, what do you think it’s going to do against Manchester City?

I have the Both Teams to Score (No) wager projected at -130, so I like the value we’re getting on the current number of -110 odds as my top pick.

The Pick: Both Teams to Score — No (-110)

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