Newcastle vs Liverpool Odds, Picks, Prediction | Premier League Betting Analysis
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Newcastle vs Liverpool Odds
|Over / Under|
Newcastle look to rebound from a loss against Manchester City when they host Liverpool at St. James Park.
Newcastle surprised a lot of people a season ago by jolting up the table and finishing inside the top four.
Now, they're looking to maintain that level of success. Matches like this – at home against a big six club – are huge for Newcastle if they are going to finish inside the top four once again.
Liverpool needed to come from behind, but eventually sealed a 3-1 at home against Bournemouth. The Reds have had defensive issues for a while now, yet have done little to address those problems.
If they end up finishing outside of the top four again, it's going to be because of their inability to sign an elite defensive midfielder.
Newcastle absolutely bullies teams that try to play out of the back. They've caused so many problems for the top teams in the Premier League, outside of Manchester City.
They dismantled Aston Villa in the opener at home and can do the same thing to Liverpool here.
Not only can they bully teams that like to build out of the back, but when teams are forced to play the ball long, they make the match very transitional. Newcastle is the best transitional team in the Premier League. They rank first in final third to box entry conversion rate and are a really good matchup against bad transition defenses, such as Liverpool.
Newcastle needs to take advantage of their transition opportunities and be effective with their pressing in the middle of the pitch.
Liverpool showed their ability play through Bournemouth's press by going into wide areas and forcing the Cherries to defend there.
When the ball gets sent long, Newcastle need to be better at winning duals in the middle of the pitch. Once they do, it will be a full on fast-paced blitz at the goal against a team that allowed 1.30 xG per 90 minutes last season and has done very little in the transfer market to improve that.
The absence of a number six in the middle of the pitch is massively important because Liverpool won’t have anyone (other than Wataru Endo, who is making his debut) to stop Newcastle in transition.
Manchester City, in an attempt to neutralize Newcastle’s high press, built up in a 2-3-2-3 to overload the middle of the pitch and get their wingers into a lot of one-on-one situations.
Liverpool has been building up in a 3-2-5 and, against Bournemouth, they allowed the Cherries to force eight high turnovers. Those turnovers resulted in three shots and a goal.
A rough start for Liverpool as they concede within the first three minutes! 😳
— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) August 19, 2023
After 25 minutes of Bournemouth forcing high turnovers, Liverpool stopped inverting Trent Alexander-Arnold in the middle of the pitch and moved him to the wide areas. That gave him more space to operate and allowed Liverpool to play through Bournemouth's high press a lot easier.
However, here's the problem. If they do that again, they'll be playing right into Newcastle's hands because the Magpies love setting pressing traps in wide areas.
So, Liverpool has a few options. They can play the ball long over the top of Newcastle's press and create a transitional match against the best transition team in the Premier League, or they can try to build out of the back against a top-five pressing team.
Neither option is great.
Newcastle vs Liverpool
Pick & Prediction
Newcastle conceded twice early last season against Liverpool at St. James Park. Then, Nick Pope got sent off and when they were down to 10 men, they still created over two expected goals, had an xThreat of 1.9 and won the field-tilt battle.
Outside of that match, Newcastle was one of the best home teams in the Premier League and put up +1.46 xGD per 90 minutes.
In five road matches against the top six last season, Liverpool had a -7.6 expected goal differential.
Newcastle’s man-to-man high pressing can give Liverpool tons of problems, and Liverpool doesn’t have the personnel to stop Newcastle in transition. I have Newcastle projected as a -119 favorite, so I like the value on them at +123 (BetRivers).