Nottingham Forest vs Man City Odds, Pick | EPL Preview (Feb. 18)

Nottingham Forest Difficult to Read

Steve Cooper's Forest newly promoted squad began the season commonly tipped to be quickly relegated in the club's first Premier League season since the 1990s. Those predictions looked wise early.

But, Cooper shifted both his general style and his system, swapping a three-center back shape for a less flexible but more stable back four.

Since, Forest have posted a 7-8-5 record (W-L-D) in all competitions and a 5-5-4 record in league play. At one point, they put together a league run of 12 matches where they only lost twice – to Arsenal and to Manchester United.

But perhaps opponents are beginning to adjust to Cooper's adjustment. Leeds were arguably the better side Forest's 1-0 win two weekends ago, and in the second half forced Cooper to re-adjust to a back three/five. Fulham were thoroughly deserving victors last Saturday.

Speaking of center backs, Forest now only have two fit following injuries sustained by Willy Boly and Scott McKenna. The situation is so dire that Forest have appealed to the Premier League to be able to add to their recently finalized 25-player league roster.

Man City Coming in Off Excellent Performance

The fitness concerns for Premier League leading scorer Erling Haaland appear to have been overstated.

After leaving with a knock at halftime of a home win over Aston Villa, Haaland was back in Pep Guardiola's starting XI against Arsenal.

By the time the night ended, he'd set up Jack Grealish's stylish match-winner in the 72nd minute and scored his league-leading 26th goal 10 minutes later. He also nearly earned a second-half penalty, only to be ruled offside in the buildup following a video review.

The 3-1 victory was a result City's second-half performance deserved, even if City were fortunate to take an early lead through an Arsenal giveaway.

But in holding only 36% of the ball in the victory, and with less than 72 hours before another away match, the effort they put into the game could convince Guardiola into squad rotation.

If he does, City have as few injury concerns as they've had all season, with only center back John Stones on the shelf at the moment.

Nottingham Forest vs Man City Pick

Forest have been far better on their home ground, but take note of their home strength of schedule.

In addition to City, Manchester United, Newcastle and Arsenal all have yet to visit the City Ground in league play. Fifth-place Tottenham and seventh-place Fulham both won there, and United easily dismissed Forest there in the first leg of their League Cup semifinal.

City have won 6-of-11 away league fixtures, though they don't score nearly as often, having yet to exceed three goals this season. And with the grueling short turnaround and Forest's recent embrace of a low block, this one could be a grind.

They should win, but it's unlikely to be the same kind of match as that late August 6-0 romp. The best play might be the same-game parlay on City to win and the total landing under 3.5 goals at +110 odds and an implied 47.6% probability. It's a wager that has cashed in three of City's five away games against the current bottom half of the table.

A more conservative play on City and the total under 4.5 goals (-160) has hit in four of those five games.

Pick: Manchester City and under 3.5, Single-Game Parlay (+110 via BetMGM)