Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Previews: Our 4 Best Bets, Including Liverpool vs Arsenal

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Previews: Our 4 Best Bets, Including Liverpool vs Arsenal article feature image

Craig Mercer/MB Media/Getty Images. Pictured: Jurgen Klopp.

We have a fantastic weekend of Premier League action headlined by a huge match at Anfield with Liverpool hosting league leaders Arsenal.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Wolves vs Chelsea

Wolves Odds+320
Chelsea Odds-110
Over/Under2.5 (+120 / -150)
Day | TimeSaturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Chelsea have completely dominated the minutes since N’Golo Kanté returned from injury and rejoined the midfield, even if the results haven’t quite followed along. The Blues created more than 2 xG in each match against Aston Villa and Liverpool but don’t have an actual goal to show for it.

The firing of Graham Potter came because of a lack of results, but there were clear signs that the Blues had solidly improved their underlying performances. Since February began, the Blues produced 1.5 xG per 90 and averaged a +0.6 xG difference per 90 minutes, good enough for fifth-best in the PL behind Manchester City, Arsenal, Newcastle and Brighton.

The market has upgraded Chelsea too, but I’m not sure they’ve bumped them high enough. Wolves' attack doesn’t have the fire power to keep up with this group of Chelsea attackers. Wolves want to use defensive possession and have the second-most defensive final third touches, but Chelsea’s ability to press and cause high turnovers could lead to a bunch of transition direct attacks for the Blues on the road on Saturday.

Wolves’ results have improved under Julen Lopategui, but the attack still creates the worst quality shots in the league and ranks dead last in average shot quality.

The first meeting between these two clubs was mostly uncompetitive — Chelsea won shots 20-8 and out-created Wolves 1.9-0.9 in xG. They’re the better side and I’d bet them at -115 or better to win this match.

Pick: Chelsea ML (+100 via BetMGM)

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Fulham vs West Ham

Fulham Odds+180
West Ham Odds+162
Over/Under2.5 (+120 / -150)
Day | TimeSaturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: This is a great buy low opportunity on West Ham.

The Hammers were dismantled on Wednesday against Newcastle, but Fulham are in a downward spiral and are likely going to be that way for the foreseeable future because their best player Aleksander Mitrovic has been handed an eight match ban for a red card received in their FA Cup match recently against Manchester United.

You could make the argument that Mitrovic is the most important player to his team in the Premier League. He's created 12.3 of their 34.5 xG and in the seven matches without Mitrovic, Fulham are averaging 0.81 xG per match. With Mitrovic in the lineup they’re averaging 1.37 xG per match.

He also makes a massive difference because of Fulham's style of play. They want to get the ball out wide and swing in crosses because Mitrovic is such a dangerous aerial threat. Fulham have completed the second-most crosses into the penalty area of anyone in the Premier League, while West Ham are top five at defending crosses.

The Fulham defense has also completely fallen off a cliff. In their last three matches against Brentford, Arsenal and Bournemouth they have conceded a whopping 8.1 xG and five big scoring chances. The Cottagers are now dead last in the Premier League in npxG at 1.61 per 90 minutes.

West Ham are the most underrated team in the Premier League. For the season, the Hammers have a -13 goal differential, but a +0.9 xGD. Much like West Ham they like to get the ball into wide areas and swing in crosses and they do it at a top five rate, while Fulham are 15th at defending crosses. West Ham have underperformed offensively as of late as well, scoring three goals off of 4.8 xG in their last four matches.

I have West Ham projected as a +109 road favorite, so I love the value on them at a PK at -110.

Pick: West Ham – Draw No Bet (-110 via BetRivers)

Brentford vs Newcastle

Brentford Odds+250
Newcastle Odds+110
Over/Under2.5 (+100 / -125)
Day | TimeSaturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Although these are two sides that tend to set up more defensive than other teams, that doesn't mean we're going to see a low-event type match.

The three meetings between these two clubs over the past two seasons have been completely bonkers. At St. James' Park last season it was a thrilling 3-3 draw, then Newcastle beat Brentford 4-1 on the road. This season Newcastle destroyed the Bees 5-1 at home.

Both of these sides set to play a very direct style, which is always a benefit for each offense, but not really for the opposing defense. Typically, when low block direct counter attacking teams face off against each other, both offenses are not used to having a lot of possession and both defenses are set up to defend against slow paced possession teams. So, what usually ends up happening is it creates an end to end match.

Take some of Newcastle's recent results against low block counter attacking style teams for example:

Brentford are no stranger to high-event style matches either. The Bees' matches in the Premier League this season are averaging 2.76 xG per 90 minutes. Brentford may concede a lot of possession, but they're so good at taking advantage of their counter attacking opportunities, as they've created the fifth-most big scoring chances while taking the third-fewest shots per 90 minutes.

They are also completing the third-most crosses into the penalty area, are sixth in aerial duals won % and are the most efficient set piece team in the Premier League.

I have 2.92 goals projected for this match, so I love the value on the over.

Pick: Over 2.5 (+106 via BetRivers)

Liverpool vs Arsenal 

Liverpool Odds+180
Arsenal Odds+137
Over/Under2.5 (-150 / +120)
Day | TimeSunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: I’ve consistently bet against Arsenal’s defense in the last month and the Gunners have conceded in three of their last four Premier League matches against Bournemouth, Fulham, Crystal Palace and Leeds. Now Arsenal's defense remains shorthanded without William Saliba and Takehiro Tomiyasu and will face a potent Liverpool attack that is still producing at elite levels.

The Gunners have maintained elite form and recovered from their early February blip, but the defense isn’t nearly as good as it was in the first half of the season. They have conceded 1.15 xGA per 90 since February began, which is fifth-best in the league.

You’d expect a response from Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool after two consecutive dud performances away from home at Manchester City and Chelsea. The Reds have kept clean sheets in 7-of-10 matches in the league, but it’s a bit of a misleading statistic when you consider that the Reds have conceded 1.6 xGA per 90 since the World Cup break. The attack is third in the PL with 1.99 xG per 90 in the same time frame.

Liverpool and Arsenal both have defenses getting too much market respect still and thus I’m betting the over. From a side perspective, I’d lean toward Liverpool at a dog price, but the Gunners have some real pressing advantages here too and should torch Liverpool out wide.

Pick: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 (-120 via DraftKings)

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