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Friday Premier League Betting: Southampton vs. Newcastle Odds, Picks & Predictions (Nov. 6)

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Alex Livesey – Danehouse/Getty Images. Pictured: Theo Walcott

  • Southampton is the betting favorite in Saturday afternoon's English Premier League match with Newcastle (1 p.m. ET).
  • The Saints have won four of five, and should be able to capitalize on a shaky Newcastle defense. But is there betting value?
  • BJ Cunningham's projections answer that below.

Southampton vs. Newcastle Odds

Southampton odds -110 [Bet Now]
Newcastle odds +300 [Bet Now]
Draw +260 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-110) [Bet Now]
Time Friday, 3:00 p.m. ET
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Newcastle makes the long trek to the southern coast of England to take on Southampton. The home side has been on fire as of late, winning four of their last five matches, which has put them in fifth place in the table. Newcastle is in their usual place in the middle of the table, but has had Southampton’s number over the past few years, winning four of the last five meetings between the two clubs.

Southampton

The Saints have been fantastic since the restart last season, grabbing 31 of a possible 48 points and posting a +2.91 expected goal differential. However, Southampton has weirdly struggled at home the past two years, winning only eight of their last 22 matches. They’ve been much better recently, though, winning four of their last six matches at the St. Mary’s Stadium and accumulating a +0.37 xGD.

Southampton’s strength lies in their offense. The Saints averaged 1.48 xG per match last season overall. However, Danny Ings, the team’s main striker is set to have knee surgery, so the Saints will need to find production from somewhere else.

The good news for Southampton is they will be facing one of the worst defenses in the Premier League, so I think the Saints will be able generate high quality chances despite Ings being on the sideline.

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Newcastle

Good fortune was the story of the Magpies’ 2019-20 campaign. Newcastle finished in the 13th place, but had the worst expected goal differential in the Premier League at -30.54, which was much higher than their actual goal differential of -20.  Much of the reason for the variance was due their good fortune defensively.

On average, Newcastle conceded a staggering 1.76 xG allowed per match, which ranked in the bottom five of the Premier League. So far this season, their defense hasn’t gotten much better as they are allowing 1.49 xG per match.

However, offensively, they’ve improved with the addition of Callum Wilson from Bournemouth. The talisman has already bagged six goals in his first seven appearances and has a crazy 0.90 xG per 90 minute scoring rate. If Southampton is going to hold serve at home, they’ll need to shut down Wilson, because he’s scored 66.7% of Newcastle’s goals this season.

Projections and Pick

Even without Ings, I really like Southampton in this spot against an overrated Newcastle squad. Southampton also aren’t the only ones dealing with injury issues as three starters for Newcastle are out for this match.

Since I have Southampton projected at -138, I think there is some value on them at -110 and would play it up to -120.

Pick: Southampton -110 [Bet Now]

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