Premier League Futures: Why You Should Bet Evan Ferguson’s Goals Total
Mike Hewitt/Getty. Pictured: Evan Ferguson.
If you are looking for who could be the next Erling Haaland in the Premier League, Evan Ferguson has the potential to be just that. He is in the perfect place at such a young age, and he could soon flourish for a top six Premier League club.
Brighton and Hove Albion were a sleeping giant for a number of years under Graham Potter, consistently putting up top eight xG numbers along with their ability to control possession, press and break down low blocks to create chances. It’s not a shock that they have been one of the best teams against the big six going on three years now, but then Robert De Zerbi came on the scene and elevated the Seagulls into a Europa League spot, while averaging a ridiculous 2.1 xG per 90 minutes since he took over on Sept. 1.
Premier League Futures: Evan Ferguson to Score 15 Goals (+100 via bet365)
The problem with Brighton always has been that they are able to create a boatload of chances and put up incredibly high xG numbers, but they never had a consistent striker to be able to put those chances away. That all changed once De Zerbi put his trust in the 18-year-old Irishman to be Brighton’s main striker. Take a look at Brighton’s offensive ranks from last season and just think about how high the ceiling is for this kid.
Ferguson played 10.6 90s last season, scored six goals and put up a 0.51 xG per 90 minute scoring rate. For an 18-year-old that’s incredibly impressive, and as part of a top four offense in the Premier League, he’s only going to get better. Oh, and he was playing for an offense that led the Premier League in shots and he was getting 3.5 per 90 minutes. If he did that over a full season, it would have been fifth in the Premier League this past year.
Evan Ferguson with the casual flick 😮💨
— B/R Football (@brfootball) April 4, 2023
Like Haaland, he’s a tall, powerful striker who has the ability to score from anywhere and has unbelievable finishing ability that is so rare these days.
— Brighton & Hove Albion (@OfficialBHAFC) June 24, 2023
By doing just simple math, if Ferguson becomes Brighton’s first choice No. 9 over a full season and keeps his 0.51 xG per 90 minute scoring rate, he will get to 15+ goals by his 30th match. For this to be only even money is a bit crazy. Again, the only thing that can keep this kid down is playing time or injuries. If neither of those is a factor and he plays a full season, he will be scoring 15+ goals with ease.