Wednesday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sheffield United vs. Aston Villa Preview (June 17)

Sheffield United at Aston Villa Odds and Pick

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The Premier League is back on Wednesday, kicking off an unprecedented string of action with EPL matches on 14 of the next 16 days.

Aston Villa will restart the season in 19th place and two points below the safety line. Villa is far from a sure thing to be relegated as only four points separate 15th-place Brighton from Villa.

Sheffield United were one of the biggest surprises in the Premier League before the world came to a halt as the newly-promoted Blades are in seventh place and just two points behind Manchester United in fifth place. If Sheffield United could catch Man U they would be guaranteed a spot in the 2020-21 Europa League, so a win over a bottom-feeder like Aston Villa feels like a necessity.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa have been terrible in their return to the Premier League. Currently sitting in 19th place, the Villans have shown no real signs of life in 2019-20 despite spending the most money ($184 million) of any Premier League side on transfers this past summer.

Most of that money was spent on defensive players — eight of them, to be exact — and it hasn't translated into any sort of success as the Villans rate out as the second-worst team in the Premier League when it comes to expected goals (xG), with a -26.66 xG differential. And wouldn't you know, defense has been the main issue for free-spending Aston Villa.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

The Villans have allowed the most goals against this season and they concede the most expected goals (2.20) per match in the Premier League. Prior to the pause Aston Villa lost four games in a row and allowed a total of 12.24 xG in that span.

A strong attack can sometimes cover up for a bad defense but unfortunately for Villa, their offense is lacking, too. Dean Smith's side generate 1.24 expected goals per match, which ranks 16th in the Premier League.

Sheffield United

It's been a dream season for the Blades in their first season in the Premier League. After a 12-year absence from the top flight, Sheffield United find themselves in the top half of the table with European football in their sights.

The Blades have been a little worse than their actual +5 goal differential, with a -0.23 xG differential, but to call this season anything other than a massive success would be unfair to the Blades, who operate on one of the league's smallest budgets.

Sheffield United took 14 of a possible 21 points with a 1.38 xG differential over their last seven matches.

Analysis

• Aston Villa projected odds: +269 (27.13% win probability)
• Sheffield United project odds: +101 (49.79%)
• Draw projected odds: +333 (23.08%)
• Aston Villa projected xG: 1.29
• Sheffield United projected xG: 1.80

It's difficult to predict how teams are going to respond after such a long break but my model makes Sheffield United a bigger favorite than the market, so I think they are undervalued.