Arsenal vs. Brighton Odds, Pick, Prediction: On the Seagulls, as Always

Arsenal vs. Brighton Odds, Pick, Prediction: On the Seagulls, as Always article feature image
Credit:

Steven Paston/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Neal Maupay.

  • Surging Premier League outfits go at it Saturday when Brighton hosts Arsenal (12:30 p.m. ET/NBC) with plenty at stake.
  • The Gunners are looking to keep their win streak alive, while the Seagulls are among the top teams in the table.
  • BJ Cunningham breaks down the matchup below and details why he's backing Brighton to get a result.

Brighton vs. Arsenal Odds

Brighton Odds +205
Arsenal Odds +145
Draw +225
Over/Under 2.5 (+105 / -120)
Day | Time Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
How To Watch NBC | Peacock Premium | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Arsenal look to keep their four-match win streak alive Saturday when they travel to the south coast to take on Brighton & Hove Albion.

Brighton are off to a fantastic start to their Premier League campaign, picking up 13 points from their first six matches. The Seagulls needed a miracle on Monday to draw with Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park, and they got it on a Neal Maupay wonder goal in the 95th minute.

Neal Maupay's equalizer at the death makes Brighton the Premier League's fifth 4-1-1 team—a five-way for second, a point behind Liverpool

(via @NBCSportsSoccer) pic.twitter.com/S5aiZNoDr7

— Planet Fútbol (@si_soccer) September 27, 2021

However, in their biggest test of the season so far, Brighton were beaten 2-0 by Everton, so that begs the question: Can they hang with an in-form Arsenal side?

After a nightmare start to the season, Mikel Arteta and Arsenal have completely flipped the script and have won three straight matches in the Premier League, including an emphatic 3-1 over their bitter rivals Tottenham in the North London Derby last weekend.

The noise when the ball hits the back of the net 😍 pic.twitter.com/yV1s4Bxn5W

— Arsenal (@Arsenal) September 27, 2021

The question is whether Gunners can sustain this type of success, or if this is just a flash in the pan.

We’re going to find out in this matchup, because they will be tested by a good Brighton side.

Seagulls’ Fortunes Turning in 2021/22 Season?

Brighton are somehow getting all of the positive regression, despite not having the great xG record they had last season.

The Seagulls have actually overperformed up to this point in the season, as they have a +3 actual goal differential, but a -1.3 xG differential. However, their defense has been incredible through their first four games, as they’ve only allowed 5.8 non-penalty xG and 4.7 post-shot xG, which are both in the top four in the Premier League.

While the offense hasn’t created as much as it did last season, Brighton have been clinical in front of the goal, because they have 6.2 post-shot xG off 6.0 xG (per fbref.com), meaning the chances being created are of the highest quality and difficult for the goalkeeper to save.

Also, since the start of last season, the Seagulls have a +18.87 xGDiff at the American Express Community Stadium in only 22 matches.

Arsenal Coming off Thrilling Derby Win

The difference between the first three matches and the last three is the Gunners are finally healthy. Arsenal are unbeaten with Gabriel and Ben White starting at center back, and the Gunners have conceded just three goals in the last eight games that the Brazilian has started.

However, the three-match winning streak has come against lesser opposition, and Arsenal’s overall metrics for the season are nothing to write home about. The Gunners have allowed the third most non-penalty xG, sixth most shot-creating actions and fourth most touches in their own penalty area, according to fbref.com.

While the first half against Tottenham was just about perfect, the second half was the complete opposite. The Gunners took their foot off the gas and allowed Tottenham Hotspur to create chance after chance and ended up beating Arsenal by a 0.70-0.27 xG margin.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Is Arsenal clearly the more talented side? Yes, but according to xG data going back to last season, Brighton are the better side. Getting the Seagulls at plus money on the Tie No Bet line is worth a play in my opinion.

I have Brighton projected at +113, so I think there’s good value on their Tie No Bet line of +122, which can be found at FanDuel.

Pick: Brighton Tie No Bet (+122)

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