Monday Premier League Updated Odds, Pick, Prediction: Newcastle United vs. Manchester United Betting Preview
Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester United star Cristiano Ronaldo.
- Updated Newcastle vs. Manchester United odds list the Red Devils as a -215 favorite, while the juice on the total has shifted from over 2.5 (-165) to over 2.5 (-150), indicating there's been money on the under.
- Man United has been excellent since Ralph Rangnick took over as manager, but we're targeting a different approach in this Monday afternoon match.
- Get our full Man U vs. Newcastle preview and pick below.
Updated Newcastle vs. Man United Odds
|Man United Odds||-215|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-150 / +125)|
|Day | Time||Monday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds updated at 12 p.m. ET on Monday and via DraftKings.|
On the heels of a 4-0 blowout against Manchester City, Newcastle United stays home Monday to face its second consecutive opponent from that city its latest Premier League match.
This time it will be Manchester United, which didn’t participate in the midweek action as a result of a COVID-19 postponement against Brighton & Hove Albion. In fact, United has failed to play since Dec. 11 after having its fixture against Brentford postponed as well.
As far as recent history goes, United won the reverse fixture at Old Trafford in a 4-1 rout, thanks to a brace from (you guessed it) Cristiano Ronaldo. That marked the Red Devils’ fourth consecutive victory against the Magpies.
A win is meaningful for both sides, as Newcastle could go level on points with 17th-placed Watford. As for Manchester United, a victory for the visitors could see it surpass West Ham United for fifth place.
Newcastle Struggling Mightily at Home
If Newcastle hopes to get a result, it will be an uphill climb.
At home this season, the Magpies have failed to secure a point against any side in the top half of the table. And the worst part? In four home fixtures against Manchester City, Tottenham, Chelsea and West Ham, Newcastle has allowed no fewer than three goals.
Even though it has been slightly unlucky defensively in those fixtures (14 goals against on 9.1 expected goals), Newcastle’s offense has simultaneously experienced some fortune. In those four games, the Magpies have scored four goals on 2.7 xG, per fbref.com.
That said, there’s one positive worth writing about when it comes to the Magpies. Only Manchester City and Chelsea have held Newcastle scoreless at home this season and the club has only failed to score in six of their last 28 contests at St. James’ Park.
So, even though it will (likely) play into United’s preferred style by doing so, a high-scoring offensive contest will likely be the strategy for manager Eddie Howe against the Red Devils.
Rangnick Making Big Difference at Man United
Since Ralph Rangnick assumed the top job at Old Trafford, Manchester United has played brilliantly.
Three wins in three games have the Red Devils sitting five points clear of a Champions League spot with two games in hand on fourth-placed Arsenal.
Perhaps most impressively, the United defense has lept into form under Rangnick. In the Red Devils’ last three matches, it has kept two clean sheets, which is as many as they kept in 13 fixtures under former manager Ole Gunnar Solsjkaer and caretaker manager Michael Carrick.
While they’ve been anything but impressive on the road — 10th in road xGDiff; 14th in road xGA — United has managed to accumulate 14 road points. That ties it with two other teams for the fourth-best road mark in the English top flight.
And even though there are concerning metrics with the visitors, they’ll fancy their chances at grabbing all three points. United has won two of its last three visits to St. James’ Park.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I lean toward Manchester United in this match, but the prices just aren’t there for me to support a single play. Additionally, I have no interest in backing Newcastle when I believe there’s a wide range of possible victory margins for the visitor.
That said, I do see some value in the prop market for this fixture. Historically, this head-to-head matchup has seen goals — the total clearing 3.5 goals has cashed in four consecutive meetings — and I expect nothing less for the latest installment.
For that reason, I’m backing a Single Game Parlay combing Both Teams to Score with the game total at solid odds.
We know Newcastle is likely to concede given its aforementioned record against the best offenses, but I believe the host is capable of getting on the board as well. Across the Magpies’ last 28 home matches, both teams have scored in 20 of them.
As for United, it has only been held goalless once in its last 13 contests against teams in the bottom half of the EPL standings. Plus, five of its first eight road fixtures (good for 63 percent) have seen both teams score.
Pick: Single Game Parlay — Both Teams to Score + Total Over 2.5 Goals (+105)