Premier League Odds, Pick, Preview & Best Bets: Norwich City vs. Burnley EPL Betting Preview (April 10)
Dave Howarth – CameraSport via Getty Images. Pictured: Connor Roberts
- Relegation favorites Norwich City and Burnley square off Sunday in Premier League action at Carrow Road.
- The Clarets are coming off a huge win against Everton, but analyst Avery Zimmerman thinks this could wind up finishing in a stalemate.
- Check out below his top betting pick.
Norwich City vs. Burnley Odds
|Norwich City Odds||+190|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+125 / -160)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
A major fixture in the relegation battle comes on Sunday morning when Norwich City plays host to Burnley at Carrow Road.
The game will have even more importance as Everton upset Manchester United on Saturday, widening the gap from 18th-placed Burnley to 17th-placed Everton to four points.
Burnley also have the chance to enact the final blow on Norwich’s minute hopes of survival, as the Canaries currently sit in last in the league, 10 points away from Everton.
Here’s where the value lies ahead of a key Premier League fixture.
Norwich City Heading Back to Championship
With eight games remaining in Norwich’s Premier League season, any hopes of survival are reliant on nothing short of a miracle in the form of about four wins at a minimum.
That would equal the Canaries’ current win total on the year, so it’s looking quite ugly on the East side of England. With that being said, you never know what can happen, and this is as good of a chance as any to take the first step toward one of the biggest shockers in Premier League history.
A turnaround of that magnitude would also require a major change in form, as Norwich create the fewest expected goals (xG) in the league, concede the most xG in the league and have the worst conversion rate in the PL.
The lone piece of good news for Norwich is that they ended a seven-game losing streak last Saturday with a draw against Brighton and Hove Albion.
Burnley Needs to Build on Everton Win
The Clarets would have expected to have a chance to climb out of the relegation zone with this game, but Everton’s surprising victory against Man United makes that impossible.
Nonetheless, with nine games remaining and a tight battle with Everton certain to come down the wire, results are at a premium, and this will be one of the best chances for Burnley to secure a big one.
A five-game winless streak was ended against Everton, and it also ended a streak of awful performances. In the five games that preceded the victory, Burnley produced more than 1 xG just once, amassing a 1.04 total against Leicester.
The 2.24 xG total Burnley mustered against Everton was their largest since a 2.73 xG number against Brentford on October 30, and they’ll have a chance to do that again against one of the worst defenses in the league.
BJ Cunningham’s EPL Projections
Betting Analysis & Pick
As the odds indicate, this is far from a slam dunk situation for Burnley, and there’s good reason to believe this will be a tough contest for the Clarets.
Burnley’s away xG margin/game is -1.05 while Norwich’s home differential is -0.64, and while the stakes are far higher for a Burnley side that have a reasonable chance at escaping the relegation zone, they haven’t been performing particularly well as of late.
Even Burnley’s win against Everton at home came with a negative xG differential. On the other hand, Norwich haven’t had a game with a positive xG differential since January 15, so they’re not the type of side you ever want to back.
The best value here comes on the draw, priced at +225. Given how even these sides really are, the 31% implied probability on this number is far less than the reality of it happening is.
Pick: Draw (+225)