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Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Everton vs. Manchester City EPL Betting Preview (Feb. 26)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Everton vs. Manchester City EPL Betting Preview (Feb. 26) article feature image
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Naomi Baker/Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City standout Gabriel Jesus.

  • Everton welcomes Manchester City to Goodison Park for Saturday's Premier League match.
  • The Toffees are whopping +1000 ML underdogs against the Cityzens, who are trying to extend their lead over Liverpool in the table.
  • Avery Zimmerman breaks down the game below and details why he's expecting Manchester City roll to the win.

Everton vs. Man City Odds

Everton Odds +950
Man City Odds +500
Draw -340
Over/Under 3.5 (+140 / -175)
Day | Time Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
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Odds updated via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

The Premier League title race is undergoing a bit of a resurgence in relevance after Manchester City dropped its game this past weekend to Tottenham. Liverpool has  continued to thrash opponents, making the Cityzens’ visit to Goodison Park on Saturday to face Everton a vital showdown.

At the other end of the table, the Toffees are dealing with a legitimate relegation battle as they’re just two points clear of the drop zone with 15 games to play. Though the bottom two teams in the league have played two more games, Everton is certainly not in the clear.

So, will the Toffees be able to generate a performance against one of the most prolific teams in the league or will they suffer yet another tough result?

Bad Fortune, Poor Play Haunting Everton

It’s been an awful season for Everton, which hasn’t been able to generate any consistent form throughout the season. As it stands, the Toffees have won just one fixture in the EPL out of their prior six games and that’s been due to bad play, as well as a lack of luck.

To be honest, Everton’s play on its own makes the side a deserved mid-to-low table team, but its luck has gotten them to 16th place. In losses to Aston Villa and Brighton & Hove Albion, the Toffees earned a 0.3-plus xG differential, but weren’t able to find even a point.

That’s partly a condemnation on their finishing, but given Everton’s 7.8% conversion rate in the league is very average, it has been a touch unlucky.

Frank Lampard’s appointment as manager at the end of January did see the former Chelsea boss garner a win in the first home league game of his tenure, but that came against a Leeds side that’s downright awful at the moment.

This isn’t a particularly encouraging fixture for the Toffees either, considering they’ve lost nine consecutive games to Man City on the bounce and haven’t earned a point in this matchup since 2017. Changing that trend would go a long way in securing safety.

Man City Looking to Reverse Momentum

It’s hard to fault City for dropping a lone game after it hadn’t lost one since Dec. 7 in a meaningless Champions League game (City had already secured the top of the group), but with the way Liverpool and the league leader operate these days, any dropped point is important.

When you consider the Cityzens haven’t suffered a negative xGDiff in a game since its loss to Crystal Palace at the end of October, and even the defeat to Tottenham came when City outplayed its foe for a majority of the fixture.

A few moments of defensive lapses cost the Cityzens, and that’s life in the Premier League at times, even for a squad as good as the global powerhouse.

Liverpool has added on pressure by closing the gap to three points at the top thanks to five consecutive wins, including an utter demolition of Leeds in Wednesday’s blowout victory.

City will need to refocus ahead of the final third of the season, but it’s fair to assume manager Pep Guardiola will be able to rally his squad for that period as he has done for all but one of the past four seasons.

Man City remains firmly in the driver’s seat, but it seems as though the Reds are ready to push the club toward the finish line.

Betting Analysis & Pick

I’m going to break a cardinal rule of my soccer betting and go against the advanced metrics in this pick. Maybe that’s smart, but if it fails I’m happy to take the outcome.

It’s impossible to fade City right now, even if it lost to Tottenham last weekend. This is a side that has a 1.49 xG/game differential away from Etihad Stadium  and faces a team that has a 0.24 xG/game differential at home. By all accounts, if you took away the team names I’d have to back Everton to cover, but with this City team? I simply can’t do it.

Coming off a loss that will serve as a major disappointment for a team that has been nearly perfect, I anticipate City will be eager to correct that outcome in emphatic fashion.

Everton is capable of pushing solid teams at Goodison Park, but I’ll protect against that with a bit of insurance on a prop and make City giving -1.5 goals on the spread line as my top selection. If City is to drop points in two consecutive games, so be it. I’m not one that can see that happening, though.

Picks: Manchester City -1.5 (-110) | Man City to Win by One Goal (+300)

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