Leeds United vs. Manchester United Odds, Picks, Premier League Preview: How to Bet the Total at Old Trafford Preview (Sunday, Feb. 20)
James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images. Pictured: Cristiano Ronaldo
- Man United and Leeds meet in an early-morning EPL fixture on Sunday.
- The Red Devils scored a big win over Leeds in the first meeting way back at the beginning of the season.
- Continue reading for why to focus on the total this time around.
Leeds vs. Man United Odds
|Man United Odds||-115|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-165 / +135)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds updated via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Seeking revenge for their 5-1 blowout at Old Trafford on Matchday One, Leeds United get a second crack at top-four chaser Manchester United.
That victory marked United’s second four-plus goal victory over Leeds since the Peacocks rejoined. However, in the one previous fixture at Elland Road, these sides played to a scoreless draw.
United arrive in better form as the Red Devils are unbeaten in six (W3-D3) while host Leeds are winless in their last three Premier League fixtures.
Leeds: Expect Better Performance Than First Meeting
The injury bug continues to cause problem for manager Marcelo Bielsa, who will be without a number of key pieces for Manchester United’s visit.
Patrick Bamford, Liam Cooper and Kalvin Phillips still remain on the sidelines while Bielsa could also be without the versatile Stuart Dallas for Sunday’s fixture.
But even in their absences, Leeds have turned in some decent performances at Elland Road. They’re due for a good amount of positive regression — they holds a -4 goal differential on a -1.6 xGDiff — and have yet to be held to fewer than one expected goal through 11 home fixtures, per fbref.com.
That said, the Leeds defense has played as poorly at home as the underlying metrics suggest.
The Peacocks have conceded 17 times at Elland Road on 17.6 expected and have only held one side (Watford) to fewer than one expected goal. All told, Bielsa’s side has conceded the fifth-most home expected goals against in the Premier League.
But the (somewhat) good news for Leeds is that they weren’t nearly as bad in that 5-1 drubbing as the metrics suggest. The Leeds defense conceded only 1.47 expected goals on three big scoring chances at Old Trafford. While their attack created only 0.6 xG and two big scoring chances in that match, don’t count on another blowout this time around.
Additionally, the Leeds attack has played well in the last five fixtures. It has created 1.42 xG/90 minutes, just above the team’s season-long average of 1.28. Plus, Leeds could be in for some positive offensive regression at home, having scored 13 goals on 16 expected.
Man United: Offense Should Find Positive Regression
If Manchester United are able to catch up with their underlying metrics, positive results could be heading its direction.
The Red Devils have created at least two expected goals offensively in three straight and four of their last five, while posting at least one expected goal in six straight.
There could be some positive offensive regression coming, too, as United have scored 10 goals on 11.3 expected in their last six Premier League fixtures, per fbref.com.
While their defense is due for some negative regression overall this season — United have conceded 32 goals on 35 expected — they have played better of late. They have kept three of their last four opponents under one expected goal, but only one of those matches came on the road.
Plus, interim manager Ralph Rangnick’s defense can’t seem to find its defensive footing on the road. In 12 road fixtures, United have allowed at least 1.6 xGA in seven.
Manchester United has also come up incredibly lucky away from Old Trafford. They currently sits on a +3 road goal differential on a -2.6 xGDiff, which is the third-largest road overperformance in the league.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Even though there’s a past 0-0 draw to consider, I feel as though goals are going to come quite easily Sunday.
United have proven very reliable at generating scoring chances away from home, creating an average of 1.72 xG/90 in their last five away from Old Trafford. Meanwhile, only two sides — Newcastle and Liverpool — have kept Leeds off the scoresheet at home this season.
Further, both sides are averaging north of three combined xG in its respective venues for this fixture. At home, Leeds have seen an average of 3.05 combined xG at home while United have seen a combined average of 3.11 on the road.
With Leeds due for some positive offensive regression at home, I expect goals will come at both ends of the pitch. None of United’s three road clean sheets have been deserved, while Leeds haven’t kept a clean sheet since Matchday 14.
But with the “yes” side of both teams to score heavily juiced and BTTS + over 2.5 goals climbing, I’m opting for an alternate total instead.
I have over three goals projected at -110, so I’m happy to take it at +100.
Pick: Total Over 3 Goals (+100)