Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions, Preview, Best Bets: Can Leeds Secure Crucial Win Against Brighton?
Catherine Ivill/Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds United standout Raphinha.
- Leeds welcomes Brighton & Hove Albion to Elland Road for Sunday’s Premier League clash.
- The Peacocks are trying to avoid relegation, which means securing a victory is the lone goal.
- Avery Zimmerman breaks down the game below and delivers his top pick.
Leeds vs. Brighton Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-130 / -110)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated as of Sunday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
It wasn’t likely Leeds United was going to be relegated just a month ago, but the club is about to play a match against Brighton & Hove Albion that will be massive in determining which league it plays in next season.
The Seagulls have been in fine form in recent weeks, and while they don’t have much to play for in Sunday’s clash, they’ll be looking to end the EPL campaign with some positive results.
That said, let’s see where we can find some betting value ahead of this important clash at Elland Road.
Desperate Leeds Trying to Avoid Relegation
Jesse Marsch looked to be well on his way to guiding his team out of a relegation battle, but the last month has resulted in Leeds dropping right back into a dire position.
The Peacocks have lost three in a row and are winless in four, posting 0.97 expected goal (xG) deficits or more in each outing.
As it stands, Leeds is level with Burnley on points, but the Clarets have a game in hand and a substantial goal differential edge. If the Peacocks are to make it out of the relegation zone and back into the Premier League for another season, they’ll have to be the catalysts behind it.
Leeds remains without a host of players as Luke Ayling, Daniel James, Stuart Dallas and Patrick Bamford all are likely to be out, though Bamford is the lone player that has a chance to get some minutes.
The cards aren’t falling in the Peacocks’ favor, and they’ll have to battle through the adversity.
Brighton Looking to Close Off Positive Run
After a disappointing stretch in the middle of the season, Brighton have returned to the form that many thought could carry them to a challenge for a top-half finish in the Premier League, and that’s where it resides.
Disappointing results against Manchester City and Southampton were sandwiched by dominant victories over Manchester United and Wolves as well as gutsy three-pointers over Arsenal and Tottenham.
The Seagulls sit in the middle of the table and won’t be fighting for that European spot, but it’s hard to look back on this season as an overall failure, and rather a solid success.
A finish in the top 10 for Brighton would represent a six-position jump from its prior Premier League high since being elevated to the English first tier in 2017, and the club is only getting stronger.
Betting Analysis & Pick
While these squads aren’t headed in the same direction when it comes to form, this is a good chance for Leeds to pick up some much-needed points.
Rather, I should say this is the best chance for the Peacocks to pick up points, as they have to travel to Brentford for their EPL finale.
Leeds has averaged a -0.13 xG/game differential at Elland Road this season, while Brighton has notched a -0.11 xG/game differential away from home. And while the Seagulls are a better team in better form, every single ounce of meaning with this game sits with the Peacocks.
I’m confident that this side will, at the very least, enter this game knowing the stakes of the fixture and put in an effort that reflects that importance. Whether Leeds can get over the line is a question for the day, but by backing the club you can take a team that has its back truly against the wall.
Pick: Leeds — Draw No Bet (+100)