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Newcastle United vs. Crystal Palace Betting Odds & Pick: Can Magpies Stay Hot?

Newcastle United vs. Crystal Palace Betting Odds & Pick: Can Magpies Stay Hot? article feature image
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Chloe Knott – Danehouse/Getty Images. Pictured: Crystal Palace standout Wilfried Zaha.

  • Newcastle United looks to stay hot as it faces Crystal Palace on Wednesday afternoon in English Premier League action.
  • Nick Hennion is betting both teams to score at -115, counting on the recent improvements from the Palace attack to hold up its end of this prop.
  • Get his full Newcastle vs. Crystal palace pick and preview below.

Newcastle vs. Crystal Palace Odds

Newcastle Odds +135
Crystal Palace Odds +200
Draw +235
Over/Under 2.5 (+110 / -150)
Day | Time Wednesday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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On the heels of a last-gasp winner against Leicester City, Newcastle United hosts Crystal Palace on Wednesday in Premier League action as it seeks a third consecutive victory.

The Eagles are coming off a weekend defeat in the FA Cup to Chelsea and dropped all three points in its last EPL fixture on April 10 against Leicester City. However, before that point, Palace picked up points in seven consecutive fixtures across all competitions.

In the reverse meeting between these sides at Selhurst Park, they wound up playing to a 1-1 draw with the Eagles winning on expected goals.

Newcastle Putting Together Nice Run

Newcastle United has proved an up-and-down side of late, but has seemingly found itself back on solid footing.

Manager Eddie Howe’s side suffered three consecutive defeats against Chelsea, Everton and Tottenham to put an end to a nine-match unbeaten run, but has now won two in a row, both of which were on home soil.

Although the opposition — Wolves and Leicester — can be described as mid-table at best, the underlying metrics are solid for the Magpies. They generated at least 1.4 xG in both games and limited both opponents to less than one xG , per fbref.com. Including those two fixtures, Newcastle has held four of its last five opponents under 1.0 xGF at St. James’ Park.

Newcastle’s home attack has also proved quite good. It has created at least one xG in three consecutive games and six of the last seven contests, while only two sides — Manchester City and Chelsea — have managed to keep Newcastle off the scoresheet at home this season.

Positive defensive regression could be on the way soon as well. Entering Tuesday’s contest against Crystal Palace, Newcastle has conceded 26 home goals, but on only 23.4 xGA overall.

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Crystal Palace Finding Some Road Fortune

Crystal Palace has undoubtedly played better at home, but perhaps its turning a corner in terms of its road form.

Entering this meeting with Newcastle, manager Patrick Vieira’s side has picked up at least a point in five of its last six road games, with its previous road loss to Leicester ending a five-match road unbeaten run. Additionally, its road attack has performed better of late, creating at least one xG in three consecutive road affairs, per fotmob.com.

Further, the Palace defense has shown slight signs of improvement away from Selhurst Park. It has kept two of its last five opponents at less than one xG, per fbref.com. While that might not seem the most impressive feat, it becomes more impressive upon learning the Eagles kept a grand total of zero of their previous 10 road opponents under that benchmark.

All that said, slight negative regression could come soon for Palace. Entering this game, the Eagles own a -5 road goal differential against a -6 xGDiff overall.


BJ Cunningham’s EPL Projections


Betting Analysis & Pick

I lean to Newcastle as the home favorite, but there aren’t any prices that jump out to me of the options available.

That said, the one market where I see slight value is via the Both Teams To Score betting line. To me, I believe this is a good buy-low spot on a road Palace BTTS angle. Vieira’s side has seen both teams score in only seven of 15 road fixtures, but three of those occasions have come in its last five road fixtures.

On the flip side, Newcastle has proved a very reliable BTTS side in matches at St. James’ Park. The “Yes” side has cashed in 12 of its 16 home contests this season, including two of the last three games. Given Newcastle has scored in all but two home tilts this season, the onus to cash this prop belongs to Palace.

Given the recent improvements from Palace’s attack, expect them to notch a tally against a Newcastle defense that has only only one clean sheet since the start of March.

Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-115)

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