Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Arsenal vs. Brighton Preview (Saturday, June 20)

Brighton vs. Arsenal Odds

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Arsenal puts their putrid road form to the test as they head to the American Express Community Stadium to take on Brighton.

Arsenal has an outside shot at a top 5 finish, but needs to kick it into high gear now if they want to have a chance. Brighton have fallen into a relegation battle, only sitting two points above the relegation zone.

With one of the toughest remaining schedules, the Seagulls will need a result from this match.

Brighton

The Seagulls have had an lackluster season up to this point, currently sitting in 15th place. But Brighton deserve to be a little higher in the table than they are right now.

Based on expected points, the Seagulls should have 9.26 more points than they have right now (29 actual vs. 38.26 xPoints). The Seagulls have had some bad luck in front of goal as well, as they have scored 7.03 less goals than expected (32 actual vs. 39.03 xG).

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Brighton hasn't been in great form as of late, as they were winless in their last nine matches before the break. However, Brighton are due for some positive regression. In those nine matches they've been much better than their actual results have shown:

• Actual Goal Differential: -4
• Expected Goal Differential: +0.99
• Actual Points: 6
• Expected Points: 13.70

I think facing a team as poor on the road as Arsenal provides Brighton with fantastic opportunity to get at least a draw from this match.

Arsenal

Arsenal came back from the break as the same old Arsenal, getting dominated by Man City and showing no signs of life.

As an Arsenal fan, this has been the worst season in recent memory, sitting in ninth place, with no realistic shot at a top 4 or top 5 finish.

Their biggest downfall has been their performance on the road, which has flat out stunk. With only two wins on the road so far this campaign, the Gunners do not look like on of the six best teams in England anymore.

On the road this season, Arsenal has a -4.68 expected goal differential and are only generating 1.20 xG per game. Talent wise, Arsenal is the better squad, but they cannot be trusted until they show the ability to dominate teams in the lower half of the table.

Previous Meeting

Brighton pulled off huge upset at the Emirates Stadium back in December, beating Arsenal 2-1, and to be honest, Brighton was the better side in the match.

Brighton outshot Arsenal 20-12 and created more high quality chances, as the expected goals report shows. Arsenal has since changed managers since that December meeting, so it will be interesting to see how Mikel Arteta approaches this match.

Analysis

I really don't understand why Arsenal is somewhat favored in this game. Based on my model, I actually have Brighton favored in this game:

• Brighton projected odds: +135 (42.63% win probability)
• Arsenal projected odds: +207 (32.61%)
• Draw projected odds: +304 (24.76%)
• Brighton projected xG: 1.54
• Arsenal projected xG: 1.29

I had already bet Brighton +0.5 before the Man City/Arsenal match and the odds have since jumped from the opening of +110 for Arsenal, to now it's closer to a pick'em.

However, I still think there is good value on draw no bet for Brighton, since you are getting plus odds.