Burnley vs. Liverpool Odds and Pick: Best Bet for Saturday’s Premier League Match

Burnley at Liverpool Odds, Pick

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Liverpool continue their quest to break the all-time Premier League points record on Saturday morning with a match against Burnley. The Reds would need nine points from their final four games to beat Man City's 100-point performance from 2017-18.

Liverpool are huge favorites to step closer to that mark on Saturday but Burnley are no pushovers and have enjoyed a nice run of form during Project Restart.

Liverpool

The big news to come out Merseyside this week is Liverpool captain Jordan Henderson will miss the rest of the season due to injury. This is a blow to Liverpool's midfield, but Naby Keita is a capable replacement in the center of the park.

The Reds have dropped as many points in their last five matches (a whopping four) than they did all season long and their underlying metrics since the restart are a bit concerning:

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Liverpool are saying all the right things about being motivated to break the record, but their performance since the break is a bit concerning.

Burnley

You can make the argument that Burnley have been one of the best teams since the restart. The Clarets have earned 10 of a possible 15 points in their last five matches. In typical Burnley fashion they have scored just four goals in their five matches since the break but they have still managed to earn three wins.

Burnley got some great news this week as striker Chris Wood was able to return from injury and log 39 minutes against West Ham on Wednesday. Wood will be a welcome addition to Burnley's front-line as he is averaging 0.63 xG per 90 minutes, which is the fifth-best mark in the Premier League this season.

The Clarets typically line up in a defense-first 4-4-2 formation formation, which allows Burnley to keep eight players behind the ball and create a defensive wall that works in unison to deny the opposing team space to play through the center or between the lines.

Previous Meeting

Liverpool blanked Burnley, 3-0, in the reverse fixture at Turf Moor back in August. However, the game was a lot closer than the final score line suggests. Burnley did a good job defensively, forcing Liverpool to take 53% of their shots from outside the box.

They also did not allow Liverpool to take a shot inside the six-yard box. Based on the expected goals report, Burnley should have lost a much tighter match.

Analysis

I expect Burnley's defense to give Liverpool some issues and my model projects this to be a closer match than the betting market:

• Liverpool projected odds: -216 (68.31% win probability)
• Burnley projected odds: +734 (11.99%)
• Draw projected odds: +408 (19.70%)
• Liverpool projected xG: 2.09
• Burnley projected xG: 0.89