Premier League Odds, Picks: Betting Predictions for Leicester City vs. Brighton (Tuesday, June 23)

Brighton at Leicester City Odds, Pick

Odds as of Monday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The Premier League rolls on Tuesday as third-place Leicester City hosts 14th-place Brighton & Hove Albion at the King Power Stadium.

Leicester may rue the fact that they could only earn a draw against Watford in their first match back, but the expected goals report shows that a tie was a fair result, even if Watford's equalizer came in the game's dying seconds.

Brighton were perhaps the story of the first weekend back in action as the Seagulls pulled off a stunning comeback against Arsenal, scoring a 95th-minute goal to win, 2-1.

Brighton only have a five-point cushion between them and the relegation zone so another result is vital for the Seagulls if they want to be able to breathe easy. Leicester only own a three-point lead over Chelsea but they have an eight-point edge over Manchester United, so they look to be a sure thing for Champions League in 2020-21.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Leicester City

This has been Leicester City's best season since their miraculous Championship run back in 2015-16. Leicester was buoyed from a fantastic run of form between Oct. 19 and Dec. 8 that saw the Foxes win nine matches in a row and outscore their opponents, 25-3.

They say all good things must come to an end and Leicester began to stumble a bit before the world came to a halt.

Leicester have only picked up nine of a possible 27 points over their last nine games, but those results are a tad misleading as Leicester had a +0.73 expected goal differential in those matches.

There's usually plenty of action when Leicester takes the field as they average 2.90 total expected goals per contest this season. That explains why 60% of their matches have ticked over 2.5 goals in 2019-20.

Brighton & Hove Albion

Thanks to their 2-1 win over Arsenal, Brighton are out of relegation trouble for now. However, the Seagulls are going to need to improve on the road if they want to avoid getting sucked back into the fray.

Brighton have earned only six of a possible 24 points and have a -7.46 expected goals differential in eight road games against the top-half of the Premier League.

Brighton matches only average 2.5 total goals, but their total xG per match is 3.03 (and 3.23 on the road), so it's not like they play a boring style. In fact, 60% of Brighton's road matches have gone over 2.5 goals this season.

Analysis

My numbers for this match are right inline with the current odds on DraftKings:

• Leicester projected odds: -145 (59.20% win probability)
• Brighton projected odds: +427 (18.98%)
• Draw projected odds: +358 (21.81%)
• Leicester projected xG: 1.94
• Brighton projected xG: 1.05

I do, however, see value on the total in this match. Neither of these teams are strangers to back-and-forth matches and I project this game for 2.99 expected goals, so I think the Over 2.5 is good value.

PICK: Over 2.5 Goals (-108)

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