Premier League Betting Odds, Pick & Prediction: Burnley’s Defense Can Hang With Manchester City

Premier League: Manchester City vs. Burnley Odds & Pick

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Man City, which plays host to Burnley on Monday, come into the game after thrashing Arsenal 3-0 at home. With Liverpool too far ahead to catch and their Champion League ban going into effect next year, the Citizens really have nothing to play for in this game.

Burnley, meanwhile, have enjoyed a fantastic campaign so far this season. They currently sitting in the middle of the table — an improvement from previous seasons when they’ve been toward the bottom — and have all but secured another season in the Premier League. A result at the Etihad would be huge confidence booster for the Clarets.

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Manchester City

It has been an interesting season for the Citizens. Their underlying metrics have been just as good, if not better, than prior seasons, but the results haven’t been there. They’re 11 points lower than they were at this point last year and 18 points lower than two years ago.

But don’t let that fool you: The Citizen’s offense is absolutely lethal.

So far this season, Man City has scored 71 goals, which the most in the Premier League.  Expected goals shows that number should be even higher, with 75.28 xG. Sergio Aguero is their main man in front of goal, scoring an eye-popping 0.99 xG per 90 minutes. The Argentine was rested on Wednesday against Arsenal, so I fully expect him to start up front for the Citizens.

It’ll be interesting to see how patient Man City can be against a squad like Burnley that will park the bus and play for the 0-0 draw.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Burnley

The Clarets’ calling card has always been their defense. Burnley always line up in a 4-4-2 and play a similar style of football as Atletico Madrid, which has historically been known as Europe’s best defensive team.

Although the Clarets don’t put up the same defensive numbers as Atletico Madrid, they have found a lot of success playing the 4-4-2 as shown by their +4.85 expected goal differential when playing out of that formation.

Before the world came to a halt, Burnley was in a good run of form. In their last seven matches they were undefeated with a +2.75 expected goal differential. Their run of form wasn’t against a weak schedule, either, as they beat both Leicester and Manchester United in the process.

Manchester City vs. Burnley Pick

This is a really interesting game to handicap given the two different styles of play. Man City will dominate possession and the number of shots in this game as Burnley will sit back and try to hit the Citizens on the counter. My model gives Burnley a better chance than the current market suggests.

• Manchester City projected odds: -296 (74.76% win probability)
• Burnley projected odds: +902 (9.98% win probability)
• Draw projected odds: +555 (15.26% win probability)
• Manchester City projected xG: 2.58
• Burnley projected xG: 0.84

I think Burnley will be able to keep this game close, so I am backing Burnley +2.5 in hope their defense can hold Man City in check.