Tottenham vs Crystal Palace Odds, Picks | Premier League Predictions & Preview

Tottenham

It's hard to know what to make of Spurs' last performance, which was a manic metaphor for the club's season.

Tottenham was asleep at the wheel for the early phase of the game as Liverpool stormed to a 3-0 lead. Then they led the unlikeliest of second-half comebacks and leveled the game with Richarlison's long-awaited first EPL goal with his current club. Of course, they then conceded a winner to Diogo Jota only moments later after a defensive error deep into second-half stoppage time.

Perhaps you could suggest that the response — even though it came in a loss — showed more belief in new interim manager Ryan Mason than Spurs' previous caretaker. But we probably need a larger sample size before reaching that conclusion.

There's one interesting trend to note: Both teams have scored in all seven of Spurs' matches since their last permanent manager, Antonio Conte, stepped down in mid-March.

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Crystal Palace

The Eagles' attacking fortunes have made a dramatic reversal since Hodgson's appointment, though it's not as though he made drastic changes in terms of his squad selections or tactics.

Longtime Palace regular Jordan Ayew has three of his four goals this season since the managerial switch, and Eberechi Eze has contributed half of his team-leading eight goals in that stretch.

The Eagles have created more than 2.0 xG in half of their six games under Hodgson. They only did so one time all season under Patrick Vieira, suggesting there's some substance to the regime change bringing improvement going forward.

But a word of caution: All six of those matches came against sides that have now earned fewer points than Palace, which sits at the 40-point benchmark that typically assures safety. Saturday will be a step up in class for Hodgson, even if Spurs isn't quite punching like a heavyweight these days.

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace Pick

For all the talk of Spurs' struggles, they've won nearly two-thirds of their home matches, if at times undeservedly so. That, plus Palace's undeniably weak schedule during their resurrection, is good reason to avoid backing the visitors even if other indicators suggest that's the value play.

That doesn't mean Tottenham will suddenly start defending well, however. They've conceded an astounding 22 goals in eight league games since the beginning of March. And with Palace looking like a virtual lock to avoid relegation, there's less motivation for the visitors to take an overly conservative approach.

As such, I'm selling a goal and playing the total over 3.5 goals at +196 odds and an implied 33.8% probability. It's a wager that has cashed in Spurs' last four and six of their last eight, coinciding with the demise of the Conte era.

Pick: Total goals over 3.5 (+196, FanDuel)