Premier League Odds & Picks | Tottenham vs Man United Preview & More
It was a relatively straight forward opening weekend in the Premier League with Fulham beating Everton as the only major upset. This weekend should give us more drama with a lot of valuable underdog prices on the board.
Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.
Here are our weekend Premier League odds & picks.
Cunningham's Model Projections
Dabbundo's Model Projections
Premier League Odds & Picks
Brentford vs Fulham
Cunningham: Fulham did it again. Against Everton, they conceded 2.7 xG, Everton somehow didn’t score, somehow Leno spilling the ball in the first half was called a foul and of course Fulham score late in the second half on their only big chance of the match.
The Cottagers conceded the most big scoring chances last season of anyone in the Premier League, which is bad news against Brentford, who created the sixth most.
Brentford smashed Fulham at the Brentford Community Stadium last season 3-2 won on xG 2.2 to 1.4. Fulham also had Mitrovic for that match. It was announced today that he is really close to agreeing on a deal with Al-Hilal.
The only thing that would worry me here is Brentford do allow a lot of crosses into their box, but Fulham just lost their best aerial threat and started a washed up Raul Jimenez up top who took one shot for the entire match against Everton.
Fulham were also third to last in xG allowed per set piece last season. I have Brentford projected at +124, so I like the value on them draw no bet at -112.
Pick: Brentford – Draw no bet (-112 via FanDuel)
Wolves vs Brighton
Dabbundo: The market has been all over the place for this matchup between Brighton and Wolves, but not much has changed in my view of either team off of just one match. Brighton were -105 on the three-way lookahead moneyline and shot up as high as -140 after their dominant home win against Luton Town. The market then moved back toward Wolves after they outplayed Manchester United at Old Trafford on Monday and it has settled back at -105.
Brighton remain the team I am the highest on relative to the market and there was nothing in the first game to suggest they can’t replace the loss of Alexis Mac Allister and Mosies Caicedo in midfield. They conceded from a dodgy penalty, but the Seagulls had the most xG created, most attacking penalty area touches and were able to force a ton of high turnovers.
As well as Wolves played relative to expectations, they still turned the ball over high up the pitch 16 times in that match. They looked dangerous in transition, but Brighton will absolutely punish them with their press as Wolves transitions from a defensive possession side under old manager Julen Lopategui into a more transitional and counterattacking side under new manager Gary O’Neil. I’d bet Brighton at -120 or better in this matchup as I think a truly top four or five side should be more heavily favored against a team I still have power rated as the third-worst in the English top flight.
Pick: Brighton ML (-110 via BetMGM)
Tottenham vs Man United
Dabbundo: Manchester United picked up just two points away from home last season against teams inside the top nine of my current Premier League power ratings. The major reason for that was their defense, which was just seventh in xGA last season and struggled yet again on Monday against Wolves at Old Trafford.
Only Luton Town conceded more penalty box touches than the Red Devils. They pressed well and turned over Wolves high, but the change in system often left Casemiro as the lone defensive midfielder and the early yellow to Lisandro Martinez left United extremely vulnerable defending in space in this match.
Tottenham are changing into a more possession-based side under new manager Ange Postecoglou, and there are some encouraging signs from the opening match against Brentford. Spurs are sure to have some bad giveaways in their own half that leave them vulnerable against United, but Tottenham’s talent still has all of the talent through Heung-min Son and Dejan Kulusevski to excel in the space left behind United’s press.
This match should feature plenty of back and forth and chances at both ends, but the market showing United to be a solid road favorite at Spurs isn’t warranted given their away form under Erik ten Hag. This should be a tossup at worst, and I’d bet Spurs draw no bet at +105 or better.
Pick: Tottenham Draw No Bet (+115 via Caesars)
Aston Villa vs Everton
Cunningham: Unai Emery’s team got ripped apart against Newcastle conceding five goals and really looking vulnerable in transitional opportunities. That was kind of the story last season, but it never really got talked about because of how much their defense over-performed.
They’re going to be playing primarily as a transitional team, and Everton are also a team that is going to press you high and try to disrupt build up play.
One thing to look out for with Aston Villa is Emery puts so much value in building out of the back that when they aren’t the ones controlling possession or when they face a good high pressing team, they tend to crumble. That happened in match week 1 against Newcastle where they consistently kept turning the ball over in their own final third, leading to numerous transitional opportunities for the Magpies.
Sean Dyche has transformed Everton into a good high pressing team and they showed it in match week 1 against Fulham, forcing 14 high turnovers. Last season after Dyche took over at Everton, the Toffees' PPDA dropped from 15.7 under Lampard to 12.3. With Dyche wanted his team to press high it created a lot of chaotic high scoring matches that averaged 3.4 xG. Nothing changed in their first matcha against Fulham as Everton created 2.7 xG to Fulham's 1.5, but somehow they couldn't find the back of the net.
Tyrone Mings is going to be out for an extended period of time for Aston Villa, which is a big blow to them because as good as Pau Torres is in build up play, he's a below average defender, whereas Mings was an elite defender inside the box and winning aerial duals. I am expecting some regression from Aston Villa defending set pieces because of Mings' absence, which is bad news going up against a Sean Dyche-led team.
I have 3.22 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.