Premier League Prop Picks & Best Bets: 3 Top Plays, Including Liverpool (Oct. 23-24)
Roland Krivec/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool star Mohamed Salah.
- Chelsea? Manchester City? Liverpool? There's something for everyone when it comes to Premier League prop bets.
- Soccer analyst Avery Zimmerman delivers his three favorite angles on the weekend card.
- Check out below his detailed betting analysis connected to the top selections on the docket.
We have a huge Premier League card on the docket this weekend, with plenty of excitement taking place in the English top flight.
The biggest fixture on the schedule is a monster showdown Sunday between Manchester United and Liverpool that will take place at Old Trafford.
Adding to our already extensive coverage of the event, we're delivering more betting angles with value at The Action Network via our new element that will feature our three top prop plays. From player angles to team and game picks, you will find a little bit of everything to entertain your betting interests.
That said, check out below where I've landed on three featured props, which comes from matches featuring Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool.
Premier League Prop Bets
Chelsea vs. Norwich City
| The Pick | Chelsea Team Total — Under 2.5 (-130) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | NBCSN | fubo TV |
| Best odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
There are a number of reasons why it might be time for Chelsea to have a poor offensive output.
The Blues have been outperforming its expected goals on a regular basis, scoring two goals per match despite an xG average of 1.46 so far. Though the Canaries are conceding the most xGA in the league, they showed slight improvement against Brighton & Hove Albion, allowing only 1.25 xGA in las week's matchup.
Most importantly, I have to discuss the 7:30 a.m. (local) time slot. The famed game timing has drawn the wrath of managers for a long time, and it has genuine impacts on performance. Three of six early kickoffs would have gone under the total when looking at a combined total scoreline, so rather than opt for a juiced match total, take advantage of this line on Chelsea.
Regression is to be expected from an over-performing front line, making this a great situation for that to happen.
Brighton vs. Man City
| The Pick | Man City HT/FT Result (+110) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | NBC | Peacock Premium | fuboTV |
| Best odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Across all competitions this season, City has lost just one first half, and not once has it given up points from a winning position. It also concedes a league-leading 0.75 xGA per match on the road while producing 1.97 xGA. City's success is legitimate and here to stay, as you might expect, but the same likely isn't the case for Brighton.
The fourth-placed Seagulls have been able to produce quality results on the season, but I'm not sure they're sustainable. Brighton has amassed an xG/match of 1.23 while conceding 1.11. It's not the type of margin you typically get from a team that is in a Champions League position through eight games, but that's where Brighton is.
Regression can be expected, and it should come in this game against an opponent that has been in-form since the international break. Use this clever prop to take advantage of that and back Man City to maintain the lead at halftime and at full time.
Man United vs. Liverpool
| The Pick | Liverpool — Team Total Over 1.5 (-108) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | NBCSN | fuboTV |
| Best odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Liverpool's attacking success has been well discussed in the past month, but not as much attention has been given to just how prolific the Reds have been away from home soil.
Liverpool has scored three or more goals in each EPL away match it has played this year, while producing a league-leading 2.43 xG per match outside of Anfield. That's not accounting for Champions League and League Cup matches, where the prior road statement also applies.
Though United is allowing just under 1.0 xGA in EPL matches at Old Trafford this year, there isn't much confidence coming from a back line that has allowed six goals in its last two games and eight in its last four outings.
United and Liverpool have combined to play a number of low-scoring EPL contests in recent years, but the visiting side has put six past the host's back line in their last three meetings.
At this price, backing Liverpool to continue its stunning pace of production is wise.
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