Premier League Week 36 Odds, Betting Preview: Will Man City or Liverpool Drop Points as Big Favorites?
Liverpool FC. Pictured: Jurgen Klopp, Pep Guardiola
- Just three weeks remain in the 2018-19 Premier League season and Manchester City hold a narrow one-point lead over Liverpool in the title race.
- Huddersfield and Fulham will officially be relegated after the season, and it's down to Cardiff and Brighton as to who will join them in the Championship next year.
- Week 36's action is headlined by Chelsea-Manchester United (Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET) but there's plenty of value all across the betting board.
Manchester City currently hold a one-point lead over Liverpool at the top of the table and will win the title if they’re victorious in their final three games (at Burnley, vs. Leicester City, at Brighton).
Oddsmakers list Man City at -400 to win the league while Liverpool can be had at +300. Man City were the preseason -150 favorites but were available at +175 during the year.
At the bottom of the standings, Fulham and Huddersfield will officially be relegated at the end of the season, the only unknown is who will join them.
Unfortunately for Cardiff City it looks like they’ll be going down as they’re -700 to be demoted (87.5% chance). Brighton is next at +500 while Southampton are surely safe with +20000 odds of relegation.
All three clubs have winnable matches this weekend which should make for an exciting weekend in the Premier League.
2018-19 Betting Results
- Draws just aren’t happening, hitting at a record-low 17.71% for the 2018-19 season.
- Home teams continue their profitable ways despite winning less than 50% of matches (+31.52 units, 9% ROI).
- Both favorites (+7.28 u) and underdogs (+7.56 u) are profitable on the moneyline due to draws performing so poorly.
- Underdogs of +1000 or higher have won just 2 of 65 matches this season (-29.85 u), and they’re a losing bet historically as well (-95.63 units since 2012).
- The most profitable teams this season have been Crystal Palace (+16.77 u) and Leicester City (+13.48 u).
- Crystal Palace earned a pair of big upset wins at Manchester City and Arsenal, while Leicester City have beaten Man City at home and Chelsea on the road.
Week 36 Betting Breakdown
(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)
Friday (1 match)
Liverpool aren’t likely to drop any points against Huddersfield and are massive -1300 favorites against the Terriers Friday night.
Huddersfield are listed at +3350 on the moneyline, just the fourth time we’ve tracked an EPL team at odds above 30-1. The previous three combined to get outscored 15-2 in very lopsided losses, and they all happened to be this season.
One notable betting aspect of this match is the love for the under, shifting from 4 to 3.75 behind more than 60% of bets and money.
Saturday (6 matches)
Tottenham take on West Ham early Saturday (7:30 a.m. ET) in a crucial match for a top-four position and automatic Champions League berth for next year.
Spurs are also aiming to win this season’s UCL title and face Ajax in the semifinal first leg next Tuesday. Despite the busy schedule, head coach Mauricio Pochettino insists his team will be focused for each and every match individually.
Bettors have been enamored with West Ham (+630) as trendy road underdogs and they’ve received nearly 40% of all moneyline wagers. Despite the public loading up on the Hammers, sharp money has taken Tottenham (-240) to secure a home victory.
Saturday is also a big day in the relegation race with Cardiff City, Brighton and Southampton all in action.
Cardiff City have a great shot to pick up all three points at Fulham and are listed at just +195 to earn the victory. Surprisingly, casual bettors are actually backing the home side instead with nearly 70% of tickets on the Cottagers (+140).
Bettors haven’t been too keen on Brighton, either, moving from +125 to +135 since opening against Newcastle.
However, smart money has hit Southampton a couple different times, shifting their moneyline from +120 to -110 against Bournemouth. A win would officially keep them safe from the relegation zone and Bournemouth have been incredibly inconsistent this year, so I agree with the sharp move here.
Sunday (3 matches)
In Sunday’s opening match, Arsenal travel to Leicester City trying to reverse their poor form away from home. The Gunners were just walloped at Wolves in midweek action and also have an important Europa League semifinal to focus on next Thursday.
Usually public bettors are all over Arsenal, even on the road, although this weekend they’re receiving <30% of wagers. The vast majority of bets is on Leicester City (+170) and the market has adjusted odds accordingly.
Sunday’s second game features Man City traveling to Burnley in what could be a tricky matchup, but not according to the odds. Burnley are currently listed as +1800 underdogs which is the third-largest home moneyline we’ve ever tracked in the Premier League.
Things didn’t go well for the two biggest underdogs which both occurred earlier this year: Huddersfield (+2365) lost to Man City, 5-0, and Cardiff City (+2060) lost to Man City, 3-0.
Public bettors again are taking a shot on Burnley but save your money on the Clarets and take Man City to win by 2+ goals instead.
Wrapping up Week 36 is the marquee matchup between Manchester United and Chelsea at Old Trafford (11:30 a.m. ET).
United have really struggled since advancing past PSG in the Champions League Round of 16 and have lost three straight games in all competitions (at Barcelona, at Everton, vs. Manchester City).
Another loss by United would likely eliminate them from a top-four finish and public bettors don’t see it happening. Nearly 50% of bets has come in on Manchester Utd (+170) yet the moneyline continues to shift toward Chelsea (+175).
We’re still a couple days out, but this is shaping up to be a Pros (Chelsea) vs. Joes (Manchester Utd) type of match.
Value Plays (EPL Season Record: 41-81-1, -22.96 units)
- Tottenham/West Ham Draw (+435)
- Fulham/Cardiff City Draw (+260)
- Crystal Palace/Everton Draw (+245)
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