PSG vs. Istanbul Basaksehir Champions League Odds, Picks & Predictions (Tuesday, Dec. 8)
Franck Fife/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Neymar (left) and Kylian Mbappe.
- A win over Turkish champions Istanbul Basaksehir gets PSG through to the Champions League knockout stages.
- The Parisians are heavy favorites to get all three points against an Istanbul side that has struggled to start this season.
- Matt Trebby breaks down how to find betting value in this matchup.
PSG vs. Istanbul Basaksehir Odds
|PSG Odds||-1000 [BET NOW]|
|Istanbul Basaksehir Odds||+2500 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+900 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||3.5 (-139/+112) [BET NOW]|
|Time||Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET|
|TV||CBS All Access | fuboTV|
I’m going to start with the obvious: PSG, barring a major upset, will likely win this game and advance to the knockout stages. They have one of the best collections of talent in the world and are facing a mid-table Turkish team at home.
With the Parisians’ moneyline at -1000 — Thomas Tuchel’s team -1.5 is even -305 — we’re going to have to get creative in finding value for this game. Let’s dig in.
Tuchel’s side has its hands full this season domestically in comparison to their usual dominance of Ligue 1. PSG are 9-1-3 with 28 points through 13 games, just two points ahead of both Lille and Lyon, whom they play this weekend.
The Parisians actually looked like their Champions League qualification was in doubt before a pair of fantastic results in their last two games. PSG beat RB Leipzig, 1-0, at the Parc des Princes and then traveled north to beat Manchester United, 3-1, behind a pair of goals from Neymar.
All PSG need from this game is a point. Even if they draw and the Leipzig-United match also ends tied, they will have the goal difference advantage over Leipzig. A win, though, would secure the top spot in Group H regardless of the outcome of the other match because PSG holds the head-to-head advantages over both Leipzig and United.
Tuchel told reporters that his team is not thinking about merely qualifying and that they will be playing for all three points and a first-place finish in one of this year’s Champions League’s groups of death.
The only injury concern for PSG will be that Mauro Icardi is likely to miss out. That just means the front three is likely to be Angel Di Maria, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar. I think they’ll be fine without the Argentine striker.
After claiming their first Super Lig title last season, it’s been a difficult start to the new season for Istanbul Basaksehir. They have won 15 points from 11 games and are in ninth place. In all competitions, they have gone five matches without a win.
There are a few familiar names who will likely start against PSG for those who follow the Premier League. Striker Demba Ba leads the line for Istanbul, having tied for the team lead in league goals last season with winger Edin Visca. Center back Martin Skrtel is still going strong at 35 years of age, having arrived in the Turkish capital in 2019. At right back, Rafael is the cemented starter after arriving before the season from Lyon.
PSG’s priority in this match will be to keep a clean sheet and remaining sound defensively. With that, we will look to the total for betting value on this fixture.
That is a very attainable goal if they’re able to field their strongest defensive units. There has been a bit of rotation at left back, but it will be either Mitchel Bakker, Layvin Kurzawa (the most experienced of PSG’s options at the position) or Abdou Diallo getting the start. Alessandro Florenzi at right back and Presnel Kimpembe and Marquinhos at center back will fill out the back four with Keylor Navas in goal.
That unit has gotten the job done of late, and it wouldn’t shock me if they hunkered in and kept a clean sheet on Tuesday. This team knows how to keep a clean sheet in a big game, as it did en route to the Champions League final last year, and Istanbul is likely the weakest of the sides they’ll have to do so against.
PSG will score in this game, but they are unlikely to play a very adventurous game. Istanbul cannot even progress to the Europa League and have nothing to play for. If PSG can control the ball and take the air out of the game, I don’t expect a huge goal total.
I’m looking to pair two under in a parlay. If you put Istanbul under 0.5 goals (-134) and the game under at 3.5 (+112), you’ll get to +195 on DraftKings. I have enough faith in Tuchel’s tactics that this is the best way to find value in a lopsided, but very important, matchup.
Pick: Parlay: Istanbul Basaksehir Team Total Under 0.5 with Full-Game Under 3.5 goals (+195)