Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: Burnley vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (Saturday, Feb. 6)
Carl Recine/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Burnley star Chris Wood, right, battles for the ball in a game against Aston Villa.
- Burnley and Brighton have recent signature victories on their résumés.
- Now, they face each other Saturday in a Premier League match at Turf Moor.
- Jeremy Pond breaks down the fixture and gives his top picks below.
Burnley vs. Brighton Odds
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
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It seems like it was just yesterday when Burnley and Brighton & Hove Albion were flirting with relegation after bad starts to their Premier League seasons.
Fast forward to current times and, boy, have things changed for the Clarets and the Seagulls.
Burnley and Brighton, boasting signature victories on their résumés, do battle Saturday at Turf Moor in a meeting of improving teams.
The host Clarets have suffered two consecutive defeats, but a shock victory against defending champion Liverpool five games back that was followed by wins over Fulham and Aston Villa have brought life to the Lancashire outfit.
On the other side, Brighton has found the form I have consistently touted the entire season. The Seagulls are unbeaten in their last four, including two wins on the bounce. And those victories? They just happened to come against Tottenham Hotspur and, you guessed it, Liverpool.
What a turn of events it has been for manager Sean Dyche and his Clarets.
Seemingly bound for a lengthy drop-zone scrap, Burnley ripped off back-to-back wins against the Reds and Villans to steer clear of harm’s way and bottom three of the table.
Yes, the Clarets are still not of out of the woods, but they’re eights points clear of the trio below them that has combined for four wins in their last 15 fixtures in England’s top flight.
Statistically, Burnley is still among the league’s worst in the advanced metrics.
The Clarets sit on a measly 16.7 expected goals and 32.6 expected goals against, generating a ghastly -15.9 xGDiff and -0.76 xGDiff/90 minutes. Burnley ranks second to last in both xGDiff and xGDiff/90 minutes.
Like their counterparts, the Seagulls have enjoyed a footballing renaissance of sorts on the southern shores of England.
They, too, were stuck in the water and could not find any sort of luck in the first part of their season. However, a 1-0 shutout win over Leeds five back started a stretch of fixtures that resulted in three victories and four clean sheets.
Now, Brighton is 10 points clear of potential problems and playing like one of the league’s finest outfits.
When comparing stats with Burnley, Brighton’s numbers are far superior than its foe and look like a club sitting among the top 10 on table.
The Seagulls boast 30.1 expected goals and 23.2 expected goals against, resulting in a respectable +6.9 xGDiff and +0.31 for xGDiff/90 minutes. Brighton’s xGDiff and xGDiff/90 figures are good enough for seventh overall.
Betting Analysis & Picks
This is match I’ve had circled on my calendar a couple of weeks due to the impact I thought it would have in the annual relegation fight.
Now, it’s circled for other reasons and none have anything to do with potential trips to the Championship next season. Simply put, Burnley and Brighton are just fascinating teams and two of the better stories happening in the league.
As for the handicapping aspect of this fixture, I feel like Turf Moor evens things out for the Clarets when facing the in-form Seagulls. This is a tough place to play, which I believe gives Burnley a shot at ending Brighton’s impressive run.
That said, I am going to take a swing on the Clarets and back them at plus money via the Draw No Bet line.
I will also play the total to stay under the number as well. The price is quite high at close to -180 odds, but my hope is it drifts down a tad and we get a little something better closer to kickoff.
There have been two goals or fewer in 11 of Burnley’s last 14 matches across all competitions, which has me feeling cautiously optimistic about this wager.
Picks: Burnley — Draw No Bet (+155) | Total Under 2.5 Goals (-177)