Premier League Betting Odds & Pick: Crystal Palace vs. Burnley (Saturday, Feb. 13)
Clive Brunskill/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Manager Sean Dyche of Burnley.
- Struggling sides Crystal Palace and Burnley go at it Saturday in Premier League action.
- Can the Clarets find the magic it displayed in wins over Liverpool and Aston Villa earlier this season?
- Jeremy Pond thinks so and tells us why he likes Burnley in a low-scoring affair below.
Crystal Palace vs. Burnley Odds
|Crystal Palace Odds||+160|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
Clubs struggling to find any consistency go at it Saturday when Crystal Palace welcomes Burnley to Selhurst Park for a Premier League showdown.
The host Eagles enter this fixture fresh off a 2-0 shutout loss against Leeds United at Elland Road last time out. The loss snapped a two-game winning streak for Crystal Palace, which sits in 13th place on 29 points.
On the other side, the Clarets are now winless in their last four contests across all competitions. A midweek defeat to Bournemouth in the fifth round of the FA Cup just added to Burnley’s misery. The Clarets did pick up a hard-earned point in a 1-1 draw with Brighton & Hove Albion in its most recent league tilt.
Let’s take a look at these sides and see what this game might have to offer.
The host looked as if it had turned the corner following impressive wins over Wolves (1-0) and Newcastle (2-1) heading into the Elland Road battle, but the old version of the group reared its ugly head in the setback versus Leeds.
Jack Harrison’s goal less than three minutes into the match all but sealed Crystal Palace’s fate, putting it up against it without Wilfried Zaha there to bail it out of trouble.
Zaha, the club’s top scorer with nine goals, is set to miss another match and that does not bode well for manager Roy Hodgson and the lads. The offense starts and ends with Zaha up top, so expect the Eagles to struggle in the Clarets’ defensive third of the pitch.
Statistically, Crystal Palace defines disappointing across all major categories. The Eagles sit on 19.9 expected goals and ghastly 33.4 expected goals against, resulting in a poor -13.5 xGDiff and -0.59 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Manager Sean Dyche seemed to have the Clarets going in the right direction after a shock win over Liverpool, which came prior to a victory over Aston Villa. Yet, since that six-point haul, Burnley has lost three of four contests and only secured that lone point against the Seagulls.
The loss of Chris Wood — the Clarets’ top scorer — has hurt them offensively. Dyche would love to have his talisman back for this crucial game, but Wood’s return is doubtful. You should definitely monitor Wood’s status prior to kickoff via Burnley’s starting lineup/bench cast.
When comparing stats with Crystal Palace, Burnley’s overall numbers are almost a perfect reflection of those possessed by Hodgson’s outfit. The Clarets sit on a paltry 18.8 expected goals and 33.2 expected goals against that result in a brutal -14.4 xGDiff and -0.65 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Picks
This could be an absolute snoozefest of a match at Selhurst Park. You have two sides that absolutely struggle to find the back of the net, which I see happening in this confrontation.
However, I have to give the slight edge to the Clarets. Those wins over Liverpool and Aston Villa are still fresh on my mind, which has me hopeful it can pull off three more points against the flightless Eagles.
That said, I am backing Burnley via the Draw No Bet wager at plus money. If you’re feeling a little more frisky, jump on the Clarets outright at +210 odds. The host side, which looked awful against Leeds, is going to have a tough time getting anything going offensively without Zaha leading the line.
I will also play the total to stay under the alternative line of 2.25 goals at a fair price. There have been two goals of less in six of Burnley’s last seven road league matches, which is a trend I see continuing in this spot.
Picks: Burnley — Draw No Bet (+114) | Total Under 2.25 Goals (-148)