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Premier League Betting Odds, Predictions & Picks: Leeds United vs. Aston Villa (Saturday, Feb. 27)

Premier League Betting Odds, Predictions & Picks: Leeds United vs. Aston Villa (Saturday, Feb. 27) article feature image

Gareth Copley/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds United star Patrick Bamford, center, celebrates his goal with teammates.

  • Leeds United meets Aston Villa on Saturday in a matchup of teams jockeying for position on the table.
  • Aston Villa is working at a disadvantage without captain Jack Grealish.
  • Jeremy Pond previews the match below and makes a prediction.

Leeds vs. Aston Villa Odds

Leeds Odds +123
Aston Villa Odds +205
Draw +275
Over/Under 2.5 (-180/+143) 
Day | Time Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
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Odds as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings.

Clubs hoping to continue their respective ascension up the Premier League table battle Saturday when Leeds United hosts Aston Villa at Elland Road.

The Peacocks got back to their winning ways last time out, cruising to a 3-0 win over a fading Southampton outfit. Patrick Bamford scored one of three unanswered second-half goals, helping Leeds move into 10th place and snap a two-game slide in the process.

In contrast, things didn’t go as well for the Villans. With captain Jack Grealish sidelined, Aston Villa struggled during its 2-1 defeat against Leicester City at Villa Park.

Needless to say, this is a huge match for teams that have European soccer aspirations next season and stand separated by just two points on the table.


Manager Marcelo Bielsa had to be pleased to see his Peacocks rebound in such grand fashion following back-to-back defeats against Arsenal and Wolves in England’s top flight.

Bamford continued his blistering tear up top, picking up his 13th goal of the season. The Leeds’ talisman is just four back of Golden Boot front-runner Mohamed Salah and his 17 goals for Liverpool.

Statistically, Leeds is a mix of offensive flair and defensive blunders all wrapped together. The Peacocks sit on a sizzling 39.3 xG, but horrific 42.1 expected goals against that generate a lackluster -2.8 xGDiff and -0.11 xGDiff/90 minutes.

There is only one team barely worse than Leeds in xGA and that’s West Bromwich Albion (42.8 xGA), which sits in 19th place in the standings.

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Aston Villa

The Villans have been the definition of inconsistent, despite finding themselves in eighth place in the standings. Aston Villa hasn’t won two matches in a row since Dec. 26, and has put together a disappointing 3-6-1 (W-L-D) record in its last 10 fixtures overall.

Grealish, whose absence was beyond felt against the Foxes, will miss out again in this affair with a nagging lower-leg injury. On a good note, manager Dean Smith is hopeful his star will be available for Wednesday’s meeting with last-place Sheffield United.

When comparing numbers with Leeds, Aston Villa is better overall in the grand scheme of things. The Villans sit on a solid 35.6 expected goals and plausible 29.9 expected goals against, resulting in a decent +5.7 xGDiff and +0.25 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Simply put, Aston Villa must slightly improve on these figures and get Grealish back on the pitch to make a run at a top-six finish to its campaign.

Betting Analysis & Picks

If Grealish was making the trip to Elland Road, I would have had to really think about the route to take when it comes to forecasting a result. However, the fact he’s staying home has made things much easier.

I went against Leeds, whom I love to fawn over, in that blowout win against Southampton last time out after successfully going against in its two prior matches. Suffice it to say, I won’t be making the same mistake twice.

That said, I am backing Leeds to bag all three points at Elland Road and continue its rise up the league table. The Peacocks are unbeaten in their last six fixtures on home soil against the Villans across all competitions, which has me optimistic Bielsa’s troops can grab the victory.

I will also play Leeds to score at least two goals in this affair. The Peacocks don’t step off the gas once they get up on opponents, so expect them to cash in a couple of times if they can get off to a  quick start.

Picks: Leeds ML (+118) | Leeds Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-118)

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