Serie A Odds, Pick & Prediction: Best Bet for Inter Milan vs. Sampdoria (Sunday, June 21)

Credit:

Paolo Rattini/Getty Images. Pictured: Fabio Quagliarella of UC Sampdoria celebrates with Fabio Depaoli.

  • Sunday's Serie A soccer match between Inter Milan vs. Sampdoria features Inter Milan as heavy favorites (odds: -275), compared to +700 on the three-way line for Sampdoria.
  • With these two teams going in opposite directions, what's the best betting pick to make?
  • Brad Cunningham likes the value on the underdog in this Sunday afternoon match.

Serie A: Inter Milan vs. Sampdoria Odds & Pick

Inter Milan odds -275 (BET NOW)
Sampdoria odds +700 (BET NOW)
Draw odds +410 (BET NOW)
Over/Under 2.5 (-152/+123)
(BET NOW)
Time Sunday, 3:45 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+

Odds as of Saturday night via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Sunday’s second matchup in Serie A features two teams going in opposite directions.

Inter is sitting firm in third place with eight points separating them from second place Lazio. With Lazio’s next match on the road at Atalanta, Inter can cut the gap with all three points in this match.

Sampdoria is in a relegation battle and heading in the wrong direction. A result against one of the teams at the top would afford them some breathing room between them and the bottom of the table.

Inter Milan

Inter Milan splashed a lot of in the transfer window spending a whopping $193,710,000, which was the most in Serie A. It has paid off, with a current third place position in the table. The main reason for their success this season has been their defense.

Inter has the best defense in Italy with only 1.04 xG allowed per game. Things get even better when they’re at the San Siro. Inter has been dominate, with a +9.4 expected goal differential in 12 matches.

Inter went into the break in bad form, losing back to back games to Juventus and Lazio. In fact, in their last seven matches Inter hasn’t been their usual selves with only nine of a possible 21 points. They also lost the expected goals battle in those games 10.41 to 10.23, which is bad for a team with title aspirations.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Sampdoria

It’s been a terrible season for a team like Sampdoria, who historically are near the middle of the table. However, they deserve to be much higher in the table than they currently are.

If you look at expected points, Sampdoria should be eight points higher in the table (26 actual vs. 34.40 xPoints). Their current goal differential of -16 compared to their -2.37 expected goal differential indicates that they are due for some positive regression.

Sampdoria started off the season horribly, earning a measly five points of a possible 21 in their first seven matches. Things were starting to turn around for Sampdoria before the world came to a halt.

In their past seven matches, Sampdoria had a positive expected goal differential of +0.38, while earning 10 of a possible 21 points. They will need a result at the San Siro if they want to avoid falling deeper into the relegation battle.

Analysis

Given how underrated of a team Sampdoria are, my model has Inter as a smaller favorite than the current line on DraftKings:

  • Inter projected odds: -159 (61.35% win probability)
  • Sampdoria projected odds: +592 (14.16% win probability)
  • Draw projected odds: +313 (24.19% win probability)
  • Inter projected xG: 1.66
  • Sampdoria projected xG: 0.77

I am going against the grain and back Sampdoria to keep this game within one goal.

Pick: Sampdoria +1.5 (-125)
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