Serie A Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sassuolo vs. Cagliari (Saturday, July 18)

Cagliari vs. Sassuolo

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A middle of the table clash between Cagliari and Sassuolo takes place in Serie A Saturday afternoon on ESPN. Cagliari's European football dreams are on life support, as Gil Isolani is 12 points off AC Milan for the final Europa League spot with five matches to play.

They need all three points and a lot of help to return to the Europa League for the first time in 26 years. Sassuolo has been on fire since the break and have put themselves within six points of AC Milan for the final Europa League spot. With AC Milan having a favorable matchup against Bologna, Sassuolo cannot afford to drop points in this match.

Cagliari

Gil Isolani hasn't been in great form since project restart. Cagliari has only collected nine points from their last eight matches and are without a win in their last five matches.

However, the underlying metrics show that things aren't all bad for the home side. Since the restart, Cagliari has been competitive, winning the expected goals battle 9.54 to 9.23.

Cagliari's performance at home this season has been a tale of two stories. Against the top seven teams, they've been horrendous, but they've had a lot of success against the rest of Serie A:

Although they've been in bad form recently, I think they will be able to rebound and get at least a draw against Sassuolo.

Sassuolo

The Neroverdi's have been in fantastic form as of late, winning four of their last five matches, including a 3-3 draw with league leaders Juventus on Wednesday. The Neroverdi’s fantastic form has launched them into the race for European football. However, Sassuolo is due for some negative regression, as they've lost the expected goals battle 11.73 to 13.54 since the restart.

Although they've won their last three matches on the road, their underlying metrics this season are not pretty. Sassuolo is only generating only 1.23 xG per match, while allowing a whopping 1.90 xG per match, both of which rank in the bottom half of Serie A.

Sassuolo also plays out of the 4-2-3-1 formation, but they haven’t mastered it yet. The Neroverdi have an -0.39 average expected goal differential (1.42 xGF, 1.81 xGA) when they play out of the 4-2-3-1 this season.

Analysis

Even though Sassuolo have been in a good run of form, I think they are getting too much respect in this match:

• Cagliari projected odds: +152 (39.70% win probability)
• Sassuolo projected odds: +185 (35.12%)
• Draw projected odds: +297 (25.18%)
• Cagliari projected xG: 1.46
• Sassuolo projected xG: 1.36

Based on those numbers, I am going to back Cagliari to get at least a draw at home.