Soccer Odds, Predictions, Picks | Bayern Munich vs Monchengladbach, Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid, More
Quality Sport Images/Getty. Pictured: Jude Bellingham.
There wasn't a single weekend in January with all of Europe's top five leagues in full action as winter breaks, FA Cup matches, Italian and Spanish Supercups and French Coupe de France matches filled the stop and start nature of the January schedule.
As the calendar flips to February, it's time for the sprint to the finish. European mid-week play returns in a few weeks and this weekend includes a full 48-match slate across the top five leagues. Here are my three favorite bets from across the rest of the top leagues on the continent outside the Premier League.
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Soccer Odds & Predictions
| Bayern Munich Odds | -650 |
| Monchengladbach Odds | +1050 |
| Draw | +850 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 -150 / +120 |
Borussia Monchengladbach have been the consistent bogey team of Bayern Munich in the last half decade, and this is the largest spread between these two clubs since before Marco Rose joined Gladbach in 2019. Bayern isareproducing an absurd +1.96 xG difference per 90 in the Bundesliga this season and the constant goal scoring and shot production of Harry Kane has helped to more than make up for the drop off in other areas for the club. Bayern are not without their flaws — the Champions League performances were rather uninspiring — but they've also improved the defense year over year to totally dominate.
The market has taken notice of these Bayern underlying performances, with them now failing to cover the spread in four of their last five Germany domestic matches. We're at the top of the market of Bayern's dominance of the league and there's room for them to still dominate and fail to cover these lofty and inflated spreads.
Gladbach have successfully covered the spread against Bayern in six consecutive meetings in all competitions and held the halftime lead in five of them. The Foals have five wins, three losses and two draws in the last 10 meetings in all competitions. This is the worst version of Gladbach we've seen in recent memory, but the market price reflects that. The biggest key for Gladbach staying close is the improved form of Moritz Nicolas in goal and his emergence will make them competitive enough to cover.
Pick: Gladbach +2.5 (-120)
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| Atalanta Odds | +100 |
| Napoli Odds | +280 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +120 / -150 |
Lazio's attack has now produced next to nothing in attack against Inter Milan and Napoli in consecutive matches. Across 180 minutes in the Italian Supercoppa and their last Serie A match, Lazio totaled 15 shots, 0.8 xG and zero shots on target. They haven't scored and never really came close to scoring in either match outside of an offside Ciro Immobile goal in stoppage time of the Supercoppa.
Despite those struggles, Lazio hit the road in Italy on Sunday unbeaten in five matches in Serie A with four victories. Mauricio Sarri's side has improved defensively year over year, but they're not producing enough chances and they've cooled off from their two-year finishing heater. Now on the road at Atalanta, one of the top defenses in Italy, it will be an uphill battle for Lazio to keep up and create enough chances to stay in this match.
Atalanta have allowed the lowest average shot quality and the longest average shot distance in the Italian top flight this season. They've outperformed their xG in attack, but their non-penalty xG per 90 differential is a full three-tenths better than Lazio per 90 minutes.
I've got the better team with an improving young attack and the sturdier defense at home. I'd lay up to -110 on Atalanta on Sunday.
Pick: Atalanta ML (+100)
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| Real Madrid Odds | -143 |
| Atletico Madrid Odds | +375 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -154 / +120 |
There's plenty of familiarity between the 2023-24 version of these two squads, who will meet for the fourth time this season on Sunday in Madrid. Atletico Madrid handed Real Madrid their only loss in the league in a 3-1 match in September. Real Madrid got their revenge in the Spanish Supercup, 4-2, in Riyadh on Jan. 10. Atletico followed that with an extra time win of their own in the Copa del Rey, 5-3, on Jan. 18.
Three matches, 18 total goals and both defenses are leaking more goals than ever when facing capable competition. It's true that technically Real Madrid have the best defense in Spain by expected goals allowed. However, the rest of the defensive profile leaves a lot to be desired. The lack of pressing intensity means teams with capable playmakers and real attacking quality face little issue progressing the ball to their top attackers in space.
Real Madrid aren't nearly as good at preventing box entries this year either. Atletico Madrid, generally known for their stout defense under Diego Simeone, haven't been that team at all this season. Both teams are playing a more open style, and it's been evident in each of their head-to-head meetings. I'd bet the over 3 at plus money or take the over 2.75 at -125 or better.
Especially when playing at home, Real Madrid have embraced the style of outscoring opponents this season. Given the attacking talent at their disposal, it's hard to see why this total isn't at a flat 3.
Pick: Over 2.75 (-120)
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