Sporting CP vs. Tottenham Betting Preview: Updated Champions League Odds, Picks, Prediction
Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham Hotspur’s Richarlison
- Tottenham Hotspur heads to Portugal to face Sporting CP on Tuesday.
- Both teams are coming off victories on Matchday One.
- Nicholas Hennion explains why he's focused on the defense and targeting the total in the match.
Sporting CP vs. Tottenham Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-120 / -115)|
|Day | Time||Tuesday | 12:45 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Paramount+|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Seeking its second straight victory in the Champions League group stage, Tottenham Hotspur travels to Portugal to face Sporting Club de Portugal.
Antonio Conte’s side captured a 2-0 home victory against Marseille on Matchday One while Sporting also claimed all three points in a 3-0 road victory against Eintracht Frankfurt.
This meeting will mark the first head-to-head matchup between these two clubs.
Sporting Struggles Against English Opposition
Despite winning all three points on Matchday One, Sporting overperformed on its underlying metrics.
Against Frankfurt, the Portuguese outfit created only 0.90 expected goals and two big scoring chances, per fotmob.com. Defensively, Sporting was much better. Against a Frankfurt side that is currently tied for fourth in big scoring chances domestically, Sporting conceded only 0.78 xG and a single big scoring chance.
But, this is also a Sporting side that has struggled historically against English opposition. Across its last four continental fixtures against such sides, Sporting is 0-2-2 (W-L-D), has conceded 1.4 expected goals per 90 minutes and has a -1.1 xGDiff per 90 minutes in those matches, per fbref.com.
Tottenham’s Defense Succeeding
Although Tottenham won 2-0 against Marseille, it was helped by a red card in the second half.
Just in the opening half – when play was 11 v 11 – manager Antonio Conte’s side created only 0.33 expected goals and exactly zero big scoring chances. Additionally, like Sporting, Spurs overperformed on its underlying metrics, scoring two goals on 1.47 expected and one big scoring chance, per fotmob.com.
However, this is simultaneously a Tottenham defense that has excelled early in the season. It currently leads the Premier League in big scoring chances against – four in six games -–and only surrendered one big scoring chance against Marseille.
Offensively, though, Conte will hope this offense can catch fire soon. Through seven EPL + UCL fixtures, Spurs has generated only 1.71 big scoring chances per 90 minutes and has scored 14 goals on 12 big scoring chances.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I lean to Tottenham on the moneyline, especially when you add in they’ll play on extra rest, but the angle I’m most interested in is the total.
It feels odd to say, but the best part of Tottenham’s game right now is its defense. As referenced earlier, Conte’s side doesn’t concede a lot of big scoring chances, and I expect that facet of its game will be on display as a result of a rest period.
At the same time, I expect Sporting will hold firm against a Tottenham attack that needed a man-advantage against Marseille to create anything. Given my power ratings see Sporting’s defense rank ahead of Marseille’s, I’m confident the hosts can stay within striking distance.
For those reasons, I’m recommending under 2.5 goals as my top play for this event. Based on my projections, I’ll back that market at anything better than -125.
The Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-115)