Manchester City vs. Crystal Palace Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Jan. 17
Matt McNulty – Manchester City/Manchester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Raheem Sterling.
- Manchester City is in great form ahead of Sunday's Premier League home match against Crystal Palace.
- Known for their attacking prowess, the Cityzens have become a defensive force this season in England's top flight.
- Dillon Essma breaks down how that translates into betting value for this fixture below.
Manchester City vs. Crystal Palace Odds
|Manchester City Odds||-625 [BET NOW]|
|Crystal Palace Odds||+1700 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+650 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||3.5 (+128 / -157) [BET NOW]|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 2:15 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
The Citizens of Manchester look to continue their dominant run of form Sunday, as they welcome Crystal Palace to the Etihad.
We could see a bit of a physical match, given Manchester City’s defensive form and Palace’s style. Manager Pep Guardiola and City should feel confident about another win and another clean sheet.
Manchester City currently sit fourth in the Premier League table but do have a game in hand over the top three (two on Leicester City).
We have multiple examples now showing us that Guardiola has his men playing the best soccer in the Premier League at the moment. Their defense has been resolute, allowing only 13 goals over 16 games, three fewer than any other team.
The advanced metrics back up their defensive form, with City ranking first giving up just 0.63 non-penalty expected goals against (NPxGA), according to Understat. That’s the best in the league by 5.36.
I’ve heard some complain about City not creating as many chances as in previous years. While that may be true, they are still first in non-penalty expected goals per game at 1.83.
Combine those two stats, and this is a truly dominant team. Manchester City lead the league in non-penalty expected goal difference (NPxGD) by a 6.5 goals, a number that will likely increase against Palace. This has been a really impressive campaign so far by Guardiola and his team.
Man City are unbeaten in eight straight, winning six with two draws. Over that stretch, the Citizens have conceded two goals.
You read that correctly. Two goals allowed over eight games.
One of those goals was in garbage time against Chelsea when City were up 3-0. The other was by West Brom to steal a point from a game that they registered just 0.21 expected goals against (xGA).
Considering Palace’s form and occasional offensive ineptitude, I would expect yet another clean sheet from Manchester City.
It sounds like City will have Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus back, which should provide a boost in attack. Man City have been unlucky, as their goals scored trails their xG by 7.24 so far this season. That should revert to the mean over the back half of the season.
Crystal Palace have started the new season pretty poorly, entering play on Sunday 13th in the Premier League table. Palace are 11 points ahead of the relegation zone, so that’s not an issue and they seem to be comfortable in the middle of the table.
However, the advanced metrics are not very kind to the Eagles. They rank 15th in NPxGD at -6.35. Palace only generate 0.97 xG per game while conceding 1.49 xGA after taking out penalty kicks.
This is a side that will sit back and depend on its counter attack with its athletic options going forward. This has been City’s kryptonite in the past, but they seem to have figured that out this season. Palace will have an uphill battle but have a fighter’s chance to grab one if Wilfried Zaha and/or Eberechi Eze can get into open space. They will try to make things frustrating for the Citizens.
Palace’s recent form has been rough. They have won two games since the beginning of December (2-4-2). I guess four draws are solid against four good sides (Spurs, West Ham, Leicester, and Arsenal). However, the only wins in that stretch of games were against the two worst teams in the league — Sheffield and West Brom.
The 5-1 win over West Brom was impressive and deserved (1.69-0.57 xG). However, Sheffield United should have gotten a point (0.60-0.32).
I will admit Palace are tough for me to get right, because I know how poor their underlying data is. They seem to get results when you would expect them not to, although I don’t expect that tomorrow though. The Eagles should be outmatched at the Etihad.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Man City have been an under machine this season, going under 3 goals in 12 of their first 16 Premier League matches. The only way that stops is if they eventually outperform their xG, which is possible.
Funnily enough, both clubs’ games this season average 2.46 xG. On top of that, we have seen a lot of unders in England due to the congested schedule that started around Christmas. On Saturday, four of five games hit the under.
I think this is something to bet into, so I love under 3 at (+106).
Pick: Under 3 (+106)
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