Premier League Odds & Betting Picks for Tottenham Hotspur vs. Liverpool (Thursday, Jan. 28)

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Liverpool Odds

Tottenham manager José Mourinho grabbed all the headlines when he said "the better team lost" to Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp following the Reds' stoppage-time winner at Anfield in December.

Spurs did win the match on expected goals, and better finishing from Steven Bergwijn or Harry Kane would have turned the result.

Five weeks later, Spurs will now host Liverpool in the reverse fixture at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Thursday.

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Spurs

Tottenham's season can pretty much be broken into three parts, as I wrote in my Premier League deep dive at the halfway point of the season.

In Part I, it was pressing, counterattacking and had the league's second-best xG difference numbers.

In Part II, which we'll call purgatory, Tottenham grabbed a bunch of early leads and tried to sit on them, and it didn't work. They sat off most teams, struggled to generate anything in the second half, and conceded late equalizers.

But there are reasons to believe that Tottenham is trending up again. In their last three matches, Spurs have created 2.6, 2.3 and 1.2 expected goals, respectively. They're pressing more and creating more chances as a result.

Mourinho has hinted there could be some more injury concerns for Tottenham in this match, but Harry Kane, Heung-min Son and Tanguy Ndombele all trained on Wednesday ahead of the match.

The approach will be classic big game Mourinho, where he'll cede the possession and the shots to Liverpool. Even though Spurs have the league's second-best defense by xGA, only six teams allow more shots per match (13) than Tottenham.

Its defense is good because it allows the lowest xG per shot (0.07) in the league.

Liverpool

In the last meeting between these two teams, Liverpool created zero big scoring chances on 16 shots, and that was at Anfield. Liverpool's attacking output hasn't been nearly as good away from home. It managed two goals, a deflection and a set-piece header.

Winless in five in the Premier League, the punditry has turned to a lack of "confidence" for the Reds. The reality is that the Reds ran very hot in terms of xG over performance in both 2018-19 and 2019-20.

Throw in some injuries, and they'd need that overperformance to survive a period of worse play. Instead, the other extreme has happened.

The Reds scored seven goals from 2.2 xG on Dec. 19 against Crystal Palace. In the five matches since, Liverpool has one goal from 7.9 xG. It's a drop-off in finishing for sure, but it's also a drop-off in production.

Liverpool was one of the best crossing teams in the world, but Trent Alexander-Arnold was 1-for-22 on crosses in the loss to Burnley. Andy Robertson was 0-for-6.

Liverpool has adjusted its tactics because of injuries at center back, and the less aggressive approach — plus an out-of-form front three — is resulting in this bad run.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

When Spurs are leading or tied this season in games, they average 13.5 shots per 90 allowed.

Given that Liverpool ranks second-highest in shots per match at 15.74, I see value in backing Liverpool over 14.5 shots. Liverpool will have possession 65%-75% of the time and will be forced to take longer shots given Spurs' play style.

Because of Tottenham's counterattacking prowess and Liverpool's lack of depth at center back with Jordan Henderson joining to the injury list, I'll back Spurs to get at least a point here, too, with anything at -140 or better showing value.

Pick: Liverpool over 14.5 shots (+100) | Spurs +0.5 (-140 or better)