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Tottenham vs. Liverpool Preview & Prediction: Spurs to Build on Success

Tottenham vs. Liverpool Preview & Prediction: Spurs to Build on Success article feature image

Jean Catuffe/Getty. Pictured: Harry Kane.

  • Tottenham and Liverpool are set to meet in a massive Premier League fixture.
  • Is there betting value with the crucial match?
  • BJ Cunningham offers his preview and prediction.

Tottenham vs. Liverpool Odds

Tottenham Odds+230
Liverpool Odds+110
Over/Under2.5 (-138 / +110)
Day | TimeSunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
How To WatchPeacock
Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Liverpool loos to stop their skid in the Premier League when they travel to White Hart Lane to take on Tottenham.

Tottenham have been the cardiac kids the past week after erasing a 2-0 deficit against Bournemouth with a 92nd minute winner before coming from behind against Marseille in the Champions League to win 2-1 with a 95th minute winner.

However, Antonio Conte's side has really struggled versus other big six sides, so we will see if Spurs can stop that trend on Sunday.

Tottenham Bring Difficulties Into Fixture Despite Results

Tottenham come into the match on the back of two straight wins against Bournemouth and Marseille, but things still aren’t right with them.

Spurs lost the xG battle against Marseille and were outplayed for a large stretch of the match. Additionally, Heung-Min Son will miss the fixture due to injury.

Tottenham have now become pretty reliant on scoring off set pieces, as they lead the Premier League with nine goals and are the most efficient team in the Premier League not only offensively, but defensively as well in terms of xG per set piece.

Spurs have struggled to create chances from open play, but they got a big boost this week as one of their best attackers, Dejan Kulusevski, is coming back from injury.

Dejan Kulusevski, finally set to return in action this weekend after injury. Understand Swedish winger will be called up for Liverpool game. ⚪️🔙 #THFC

Tottenham have already planned to sign him on permanent deal in 2023.

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) November 4, 2022

He is massive for Tottenham because he leads the team in xAssists per 90 minutes and will be key link in connecting the counterattack from the back line up to Harry Kane.

Tottenham have been sitting in a low block against bigger opponents and the results have been mixed, but if you are going to play a low block you have to be elite at defending your penalty area, which Tottenham is. They also defended really well in their low block against Liverpool last time these two met in May holding, the Reds to 1.4 xG on 22 shots.

Liverpool A Hard Team to Handicap

The rollercoaster continues for Liverpool. The Reds got a dominant win over Napoli in the Champions League on Tuesday, but over their last three Premier League matches they have conceded 5.2 xG and nine big scoring chances against West Ham United, Nottingham Forest and Leeds United. 

Here is the reality with Liverpool and a big reason why I think you are seeing them regress. Their high press just doesn’t have the same bite to it as it did last season. Last year their PPDA was 9.9, this season it’s 11.5. Last season they averaged 11.6 high turnovers per 90 minutes, this season they are at 9.3.

Although Tottenham looked unimpressive trying to progress the ball up the pitch against Manchester United and Arsenal, they are fifth in the Premier League in Offensive PPDA.

Plus, Liverpool are still without Luis Diaz and Diogo Jota up top, and Joel Matip is still out. So, why are they the favorite here?

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Tottenham vs. Liverpool Pick

Even though Tottenham are not playing the most desirable looking football under Antonio Conte, they still have been effective. Additionally, Spurs have a better xG differential than Liverpool, who have not convincingly been the better side in their last three Premier League matches.

I love Spurs on the spread in this fixture.

The Pick: Tottenham +0.5 (-137) 

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