Ukraine vs. England Euro 2020 Odds & Picks: Bet the Three Lions to Win Big (July 3)

Ukraine vs. England Odds

England continues its quest for its first ever Euro title when England meets Ukraine in the quarterfinals on Saturday afternoon.

England erased some demons against Germany. Prior to Tuesday's 2-0 victory, it had been nearly a half-century since England had defeated Germany in a major tournament.

Having overcome that previous hurdle, England are now the favorites to win Euro 2020. The team draws an ideal matchup versus Ukraine in the quarterfinals. However, England will need to focus in order to avoid a repeat of Euro 2016 when they lost to Iceland in the Round of 16. 

Ukraine is arguably the most unlikely team to make it to the Round of 16. They had the lowest point total and goal differential of anyone in the knockout stage. However, they made the quarterfinals after a 120th minute goal from Artem Dovbyk.

It was Ukraine's first ever knockout stage win, and their reward is a a matchup against arguably the best team left in the tournament field. Can Ukraine play spoiler to football's journey home to England as Iceland did in 2016?

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Ukraine: Underrated or Understated?

Ukraine came into this tournament highly overrated, having won their qualifying group despite only achieving a +0.9 expected goal differential. So far, they have done nothing to change that narrative even though they are in the quarterfinals.

Ukraine got the man advantage in the 98th minute after Marcus Danielson was sent off for a reckless challenge. From that point on, Ukraine seized control of the match. However, the team didn't do much in the previous 98 minutes before that. In fact, 1.10 of their 1.98 expected goals created came after the red card.

Moreover, if you throw out the match against North Macedonia and the final 22 minutes when they had the man advantage against Sweden, Ukraine has been out-created 5.09 xG to 1.90. So, they have a tall task contending against a well-balanced team like England. 

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England: Defense Wins Championships

The star of the tournament for England has been their defense, which is fairly unexpected given the attacking talent on their roster.

England still has not allowed a goal in this tournament and have limited opponents to a total of 3.06 expected goals created through four matches. Their defense has allowed the fourth-fewest shot-creating actions and the third-fewest passes leading to a shot.

England's next opponent, Ukraine, has struggled to create chances against high-quality opponents. They created a total of 1.06 xG against the Netherlands and Austria during the group stage.

Admittedly, England's attack hasn't quite been where they would have hoped, as they've only scored four goals and created a total of 5.61 expected goals. However, England's talent and pace are the best of any team left in the tournament. They should be able to penetrate a very shaky Ukraine defense that has allowed 6.56 expected goals during so far.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Ukraine may be in the quarterfinals, but they are a highly overrated team, and I think their road ends here. England is by far the better side and has too much attacking talent for Ukraine's defense to handle.

Therefore, I am going to back England's spread of -1.5 at +125 (DraftKings) and would play it down to +115.

Pick: England -1.5 (+125)