West Ham United vs. Bournemouth Betting Odds, Picks: Seize Value on the Total
Craig Mercer/MB Media/Getty Images. Pictured: West Ham United standout Michail Antonio.
- West Ham United takes on Bournemouth in a Monday afternoon Premier League battle.
- The hosts are favored to secure a win.
- Brett Pund issues his best bet and prediction for the fixture.
West Ham United vs. Bournemouth Odds
|West Ham Odds||-190|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-102 / -120)|
|Day | Time||Monday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
West Ham welcomes Bournemouth to London Stadium to close out this week's action in the Premier League.
These two sides find themselves in the bottom half of the table, with the Cherries holding the higher position in 13th place. Meanwhile, the Hammers are looking to climb the table after a slow start and are sitting in 17th with 11 points.
This standalone game will likely have high viewership, but I’m not expecting it to offer much entertainment value.
West Ham United
West Ham started the season with three straight losses to Manchester City, Nottingham Forest and Brighton, which really put the club in a hole.
The Hammers followed that up by going unbeaten in a trio of home matches, including wins over Wolverhampton Wanderers and Fulham.
One constant has been the defense, which ranks in the top five in the EPL in the fewest expected goals allowed (11.3) and opponents’ shots on target per 90 minutes (3.64), according to fotmob.com.
Manager David Moyes just needs to get his attacking players firing to match the defensive performances. With summer signings Gianluca Scamacca and Lucas Paquetá getting more acclimated with the squad, the team should continue to move up the table.
Following the six-match unbeaten run, interim manager Gary O’Neil took his first loss as a Premier League manager via a midweek defeat to Southampton.
Even after the disappointing result, Bournemouth fans must be ecstatic with where the club sits in the table.
The Cherries are five spots and four points above the relegation zone. However, the advanced metrics show there has been a bit of luck in the results.
The South Coast team owns a -4.2 xGDiff and has only won the expected goals battle in one match under O’Neil.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The oddsmakers have West Ham listed as a heavy home favorite. I’m not interested in backing either side at the current prices, but I do see value in the total.
With that said, my best bet is for the total to fall under 2.5 goals at -120 odds.
Home matches for the Hammers have been lower scoring this season, averaging 2.46 expected goals and 3.4 big scoring chances per 90 minutes. However, if you remove the victory over the Cottagers, those averages drop to 2.125 combined xG and two big chances.
This same bet would have also cashed in four of the five home fixtures for Moyes’ side this season.
Meanwhile, I have a hard time seeing Bournemouth pose much of an attacking threat against a solid West Ham defense. Under O’Neil, the Cherries have averaged just 0.8 xG and one big scoring chance per game.
The visitors are going to sit very deep and have shown that they can be very difficult to break down. I do expect Moyes and his team to win the match, but I think the Hammers will struggle to create a lot of chances themselves.
Once you add it all up, I think we have a great chance to cash a winning ticket on a low-scoring affair.
The Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-120)