Wolves vs Manchester United Odds, Pick: Betting Value on Over/Under

Manchester United looks to continue their winning ways when they head to the Molineux to take on Wolves.

Wolves started the Julen Lopetegui era in style, coming from behind to win in stoppage time at Everton, 2-1. It was a much-needed win for Wolves, who went into the World Cup break at the bottom of the table.

Wolves beat Manchester United at Old Trafford last season, so we will see if they can repeat that at home this time.

Manchester United are starting to really find their form under Erik ten Hag, as they routed Nottingham Forest, 3-0, on Tuesday. The Red Devils are now sitting in fifth place, only one point behind Tottenham with a game in hand.

The schedule sets up pretty well for them in the next few games, so they could very easily be inside the top four by the time we reach the Manchester Derby on Jan. 14.

Wolves

The biggest problem for Wolves — and why they are currently sitting in the relegation zone — has been their inability to turn final third possession into high-quality chances.

Wolves rank 12th in shots per 90 minutes, ninth in passes into the penalty area and 11th in penalty box touches. But they're 18th in both non-penalty expected goals and big scoring chances.

It really comes down to their shot distribution, as 42% of their shots come from outside the box and they have the second-highest average shot distance in the Premier League. Even against Everton last weekend, Wolves created just 0.8 xG off of seven shots.

Lopetegui's Sevilla teams always had one thing in common: They wanted to get the ball out wide and create chances via crosses. Wolves are top-10 in crosses completed into the penalty area this season, which is where they can exploit a Manchester United team that's fairly weak at the fullback position. 

Defensively, Wolves have been solid, allowing only 1.23 npxG per 90 minutes and conceding the seventh-fewest big scoring chances. However, Wolves have conceded 6.7 expected goals in their last four matches.

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Manchester United

Manchester United have now won four straight matches in all competitions and are turning into one of the better defensive teams in the Premier League.

Ten Hag has his team playing a very deep low block, as Manchester United have one of the lowest average defensive lines in the Premier League. However, since their 6-3 loss to Manchester City on Oct. 2, the Red Devils have only allowed 6.9 expected goals in their last eight Premier League matches.

One of the things Manchester United has improved on the most is defending inside their own penalty area.

They are in the bottom half of the Premier League in passes allowed and touches allowed in the penalty area but are top-five in big scoring chances allowed. They are also top five in xG allowed per set piece, so they should have no trouble defending Wolves if they are able to stop crosses into the box, which is something they've struggled with.

Now that Cristiano Ronaldo has moved on, it's the Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial show up top for United.

However, Rashford has only been a 0.34 xG-per-90-minute striker this season, and Martial hasn't played three full 90s yet. So, to say Manchester United is going to become one of the best offensive teams in the league after beating Nottingham Forest 3-0 is a bit premature.

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Wolves vs. Manchester United Pick

Both of these defenses are in the top eight in expected goals allowed, and the pace of this game is going to be quite slow, as both are in the bottom half of the league in direct speed and have more build-up attacks than direct ones.

Wolves' inability to create high-quality chances in the final third against an improved Manchester United defense, combined with the inconsistencies of Martial and Rashford, have me believing this is going to be a low-event match.

I like the value on under 2.5 goals at -115.

Pick: Under 2.5

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