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2022 French Open Odds, Predictions, Preview: How to Bet American Fourth Round Matches (May 30)

2022 French Open Odds, Predictions, Preview: How to Bet American Fourth Round Matches (May 30) article feature image

Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Madison Keys.

As the fourth round wraps up, the women’s draw is again is chock full of surprise contenders into the second week.

Only one of the top-10 seeds remains in the draw – the most in-form tennis player on the planet right now, Iga Swiatek – after Aryna Sabalenka crashed out from a set up against Camila Giorgi in round three.

Let’s take a look at a pair of matches set to be played on Monday morning.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.

Madison Keys (-118) vs. Veronika Kudermetova(-102)

6 a.m. ET

What a run in Paris for both Madison Keys and Veronika Kudermetova.

Entering the tournament a combined 0-4 in the high-level warmup events in Madrid and Rome, it would’ve been hard for anyone to predict that one of these two women would be guaranteed a spot in the quarterfinals at Roland Garros.

Their paths to the fourth round have been somewhat different, however, as Keys has had to go through a tricky player in Anna Kalinskaya in the first round.

She then had to weather an incredible serving performance from Frenchwoman Caroline Garcia in the second and upset fellow massive server Elena Rybakina – a top-20 player – in the third.

Kudermetova, meanwhile, needed three sets to be Lin Zhu, who is atrocious on clay, then Aleksandra Krunic before playing an injured Paula Badosa, who would end up retiring.

In terms of form, the edge goes to Keys.

Stylistically, both these women can dial up the pace. It comes more naturally to Keys, but Kudermetova blends the pace with painting the lines more effectively.

She’ll need to do just that against the American to win, and that lower margin-for-error game isn’t one that would be particularly comfortable to back.

While Keys has always had big, booming power, she’s always struggled to hone it in long enough to hit through players that can track her shots down.

The slow red clay doesn’t help matters, either. This week, however, she’s found a way to play with that controlled aggression. That’s when it’s tough for anyone, regardless of surface, to beat Keys.

Recognizing that if she plays with a tad more net clearance and aims for slightly bigger targets, she can still hit her big groundstrokes and set up a better tactical point.

Kudermetova doesn’t have enough to balance out the stylistic advantage Keys has in this one. Pair it with more impressive form from the American through the first week and Keys is the play here at a relatively cheap price on the moneyline.

Pick: Keys ML (-118 via FanDuel)

Jessica Pegula (-250) vs. Irina Camelia Begu(+195)

8:30 a.m. ET

Credit must be given to Jessica Pegula on her run to the fourth round.

Make no mistake, she hasn’t beaten any household names en route to the final 16, but she dispatched of a clay-courter easily in the first round before beating two incredibly tough clay-court players in Anhelina Kalinina and Tamara Zidansek.

Her opponent in the fourth round? Yet another unheralded, but solid clay-courter in the form of Begu.

Equipped with a strong first serve, rock-solid consistency and the ability to frustrate opponents with her ball retrieval skills, Begu is a tough match for just about anyone on clay.

Players with some power, but not enough to hit through her find it especially tough. That’s what could make this a difficult task for Pegula.

While the path to the fourth round has been impressive, Pegula has also struggled.

Her last two opponents showed up very late to the party. Once they did find their game, both really pushed her. Kalinina raced back from a double break down in the second to force a third, while Zidansek won six-of-nine games from 1-6, 0-3 to force a second set tiebreak.

Begu is another player that can trouble Pegula, construct points to win them herself and wait for unforced errors from the American.

Pegula still deserves the benefit of the doubt to emerge victorious, but if Begu starts better than Kalinina and Zidansek, it won’t be nearly as simple as the odds and total suggest.

Pick: Over 20.5 games  (-120 via DraftKings)

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