2023 US Open Odds, Picks, Predictions | Pegula vs Keys, Sabalenka vs Kasatkina
Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Aryna Sabalenka.
The Round of 16 at the US Open continues on and the fascinating matches continue on Monday!
I’ve found value on two of Monday's matchups — Pegula vs Keys and Sabalenka vs Kasatkina.
Read on for my Monday 2023 US Open picks.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.
US Open Odds, Picks
Jessica Pegula (-180) vs Madison Keys (+146)
12 p.m. ET
Jessica Pegula beat Elina Svitolina 6-4, 4-6, 6-2 in the third round. Pegula won 68% of her service points and was only broken once. The American also won 47% of her second-serve returns and broke three times.
Pegula, who won WTA Montreal during the summer hard-court swing, is now an incredible 28-7 in 2023 on hard. For her career, Pegula is a strong 252-139 on the surface.
The American hits her spots on serve and plays intelligent baseline tennis. She positions herself well, making it difficult for opponents to push her back and constructs points successfully. While the American can be a bit underpowered from the ground, she absorbs and redirects pace effectively, hitting with pace into targets. Pegula's anticipation and net game are also strengths.
Madison Keys came back to defeat Liudmilla Samsonova 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 to advance in Flushing Meadows. Keys won 71% of her service points and was broken just once. In addition, the American won 60% of her second-serve returns, breaking on four occasions.
Keys has a strong 12-7 record on hard this season, with a 234-140 professional-record on the surface. The American has a big first serve and punishing groundstrokes from the baseline. Keys can take the racquet out of her opponents' hands from either wing with her easy power, but especially her forehand. However, Keys' baseline control is suspect, she isn't the best mover and has mediocre variety.
Pegula has the court positioning, anticipation, and defensive skills to blunt Keys' power. Pegula should stand firm on the baseline and not allow Keys to drag her around the court.
Pegula has the rally tolerance to outlast Keys in rallies, and Keys should lower her margins when she can't get as many easy points as she did in earlier rounds.
But, Pegula won't just be defending all match, she has the offensive abilities to take advantage of the openings that Keys gives her.
Finally, Pegula's overall Elo rating is 89.2 points higher than Keys' and her hard-court Elo is 109.2 points above her's.
Pick: Pegula -2.5 games (-125 via PointsBet)
Aryna Sabalenka (-315) vs Daria Kasatkina (+250)
7 p.m. ET
Aryna Sabalenka destroyed Clara Burel 6-1, 6-1 to advance in New York. Sabalenka won 71% of her service points and wasn't broken all match. On return, the Belarusian won 60% of her return points, breaking five times in seven return games.
Sabalenka, this year's Australian Open (hard) champion, is an astonishing 27-5 in 2023 on hard courts. The Belarusian is 254-109 for her career on the surface.
Sabalenka's serve is a strength, as this season, she is a top-three player in aces, percentage of first serves won, service points won and service games won. Sabalenka follows her serve up with aggressive groundstrokes, and her forehand is particularly potent.
While the Belarusian can overhit at times, what makes her 2023 campaign different is her increased willingness to construct points and the control over her groundstrokes.
Daria Kasatkina defeated Greet Minnen 6-3, 6-4 in the third round. Despite winning just 43% of her second serves, Kasatkina won 76% of her first serves and was only broken once. The Russian also won 61% of her second-serve returns, breaking on three occasions.
Kasatkina is now 9-3 during the summer hard-court swing, although she's just 14-11 overall on hard for the year. As a professional, Kasatkina is 188-122 on the surface. Kasatkina is underpowered on serve and from the baseline, but still places her groundstrokes very well, especially her heavy forehand. Kasatkina understands point construction and effective shot selection. Her variety is excellent and she's quick around the court, showcasing excellent defense and counterpunching.
An in-form Sabalenka has too much power for Kasatkina to handle. The Russian's groundstrokes are too loopy and her serve sits up in the box too much. This should allow Sabalenka to tee off from the ground and overwhelm Kasatkina with pace.
And even when Kasatkina is doing a good job of spreading the court, her lack of power should allow Sabalenka to keep points alive before the Belarusian eventually finds an opening to effectively counterpunch.
And Sabalenka's huge serve should make it difficult for Kasatkina to neutralize points during the Russian's return games.
In addition, Sabalenka's overall Elo rating is 173.5 higher than Kasatkina's and her hard-court Elo is 177.9 points above the Russian's.
Pick: Kasatkina to NOT win a set (-112 via FanDuel)
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